NBA Jan 2017 I You Either Die a Sager Or Live Long Enough to become a Karl

The Raptors actually need first. Bulls, Horncats, Shit.... even the Wizards would give them work in the playoffs.

Zach Lowe and TMac had a tiny debate about defense in the NBA this year. TMac said nobody is playing defense or they're all playing poor defense, and Lowe countered that defense is hard but teams are playing it.

Niether point made there was the actual point to debate. The debate ended up being about rotating to protect the paint vs staying home on 3pt shooters. TMac argued that you should know your personnel and who will take shots where. If the guy has the ball, only shoots at the rim, and you give up a wide open lane then it's bad defense. Lowe felt that you should stay home on shooters rather than sink into the paint to deny that guy.

The problem with Lowe's argument that teams are staying home on 3pt shooters is that the stats don't back up that such a defensive tactic is effective. 3pt % is high right now on a league wide average. It's a slight dip from last year, but it can easily climb above that mark in the next week. 3pt attempts are up and nobody in the league has a defensive rating below 100. If that continues, it will be the first time that's happened in a long time. It might be back further than there's stats kept for defensive rating.

If you look for any stat that would relate to defensive success, 3pt% is pretty good stat to rate by but not denying 3pt attempts. The top defense agaisnt 3pt % is Golden State, but they give up 28 threes in the league which is near the bottom overall. So how do you measure who is denying/defending the three shot and succeeding?

Points in the paint doesn't relate as well. Most of the best teams at denying points in the paint are good on defense, but Sacramento and Dallas are top 10 in deny PITP and are bad at defense. In fact, Dallas plays the "right" defense and denies 3pt attempts and points in the paint, but is terrible on defense overall. Dallas itself is top 10 on defense in denying PITP and denying 3pt attempts, but 23rd overall on defensive rating and give up the worst 3pt% at 40%.

So Dallas still gets punished on defense despite trying to deny threes and paint points. Golden State does not deny threes and gets rewarded with the best 3pt defense. The whole 3pt shooting thing might be mental. If you face someone you think sucks then you shoot better. You face Golden State's omni offense and you struggle to shoot and catch up.

By etiolation Go To PostThe problem with Lowe's argument that teams are staying home on 3pt shooters is that the stats don't back up that such a defensive tactic is effective.

This is the strategy of the #1 defensive team in the league right now.

Opponent 3 pointers taken per game has seemed to be a better indication of defense than 3 point %.

I don't have any good insights as to why offense is the best it has been since 08-09. The only real increase in any stat is an increase in 3 pointers taken.

Dbook is back baby

man fuck basketball

By pkaz01 Go To PostDbook is back baby

Yeah. The trip and days off seem to have done wonders for him.

By diehard Go To PostThis is the strategy of the #1 defensive team in the league right now.

Opponent 3 pointers taken per game has seemed to be a better indication of defense than 3 point %.

I don't have any good insights as to why offense is the best it has been since 08-09. The only real increase in any stat is an increase in 3 pointers taken.

Well, like I said, 3 point attempts correlate as well as does PITP. Only 3pt % correlates almost absolutely. Dallas and Orlando are top ten in denying threes. Orlando is middle of the road in defensive rating and Dallas is bottom 10 in defensive rating. Best 3pt defense is bottom five in 3pt attempts given up at 28.6 per game.

By giririsss Go To PostYeah. The trip and days off seem to have done wonders for him.

He did pretty good this time of the year last season too

1 FGM in 6 minutes.. da fa..

No Embiid who would watch this shit

By DY_nasty Go To Postman fuck basketball

https://www.instagram.com/p/BPQzAGJAOji/?taken-by=famouslos32&hl=en

There are more than him coming too..

League average DRtg in 2005 was 106.1 so it's not odd to think that somehow 104DRtg is Top 10 in modern times.

League Average DRtg every 5 years since 1985 via Basketball Reference:

1985: 107.9
1990: 108.1
1995: 108.3
2000: 104.1
2005: 106.1
2010: 107.6
2015: 105.6 (!)

2017, thus far? 108.1 -- nothing completely out of the ordinary.

So, no, 104DRtg isn't historically bad nor shocking that it's Top 10. To conclude, much like T-Mac, I don't think you're right on this one etio.

Honestly I think the league currently just has the best offensive talent we might have ever seen. Team schemes, scouting and film/data has made everyone hyper efficient, and I think the league is better for it.

Spurs just lost to the Suns. Booker with 39, Kawhi with 38.

pkaz your tank efforts are pitiful.

Miami is getting that #1 pick.

Wizards down at home to an Embiidless Philly lol

Just cant get over the 39 point hump, fuck man two in a row this kid is a problem

I wonder if the hand checking rule in 1995 and 2005 had something to do with it as well..

By reilo Go To PostHonestly I think the league currently just has the best offensive talent we might have ever seen. Team schemes, scouting and film/data has made everyone hyper efficient, and I think the league is better for it.

I do think more players are capable of dropping 50 on any given night than we have seen in ages but I also think college was helpful for learning how to play D better as well too tho..

By pkaz01 Go To PostJust cant get over the 39 point hump, fuck man two in a row this kid is a problem

back to back 39 pt games. Not bad.

Hopefully he can build some efficency with this confidence.

By reilo Go To PostLeague average DRtg in 2005 was 106.1 so it's not odd to think that somehow 104DRtg is Top 10 in modern times.

League Average DRtg every 5 years since 1985 via Basketball Reference:

1985: 107.9
1990: 108.1
1995: 108.3
2000: 104.1
2005: 106.1
2010: 107.6
2015: 105.6 (!)

2017, thus far? 108.1 – nothing completely out of the ordinary.

So, no, 104DRtg isn't historically bad nor shocking that it's Top 10. To conclude, much like T-Mac, I don't think you're right on this one etio.

You didn't respond to the 3pt vs PITP defense discussion which was the whole discussion.

I'd add that those 2005-2006 years, as in that period of time, was pretty heavily inflating by FT shooting which was much higher then than now. That was the period of the FT wars, flopping and flailing. Defenses couldn't do much about the way refs called the game. This is about defensive tactical changes on the paint vs 3pt line.

By blackace Go To PostI wonder if the hand checking rule in 1995 and 2005 had something to do with it as well..

I think the hand-checking thing is totally overrated. The illegal defense was far more influential in bringing in tougher defensive schemes than what players in the 90s saw. Was it tough against Jordan that he was handchecked? Yes. But he also couldn't be double-teamed and you could ISO him up against a single defender while the other 4 cleared the floor on the opposite end. You can't do that anymore. Defenders had to play man-to-man defense at all times and couldn't do some of the things we see today like hedge.

By blackace Go To PostI do think more players are capable of dropping 50 on any given night than we have seen in ages but I also think college was helpful for learning how to play D better as well too tho..

NCAA basketball fucking sucks. I don't think it teaches kids anything, especially in modern days where they are used as props for big schools to make money.

By reilo Go To PostI think the hand-checking thing is totally overrated. The illegal defense was far more influential in bringing in tougher defensive schemes than what players in the 90s saw. Was it tough against Jordan that he was handchecked? Yes. But he also couldn't be double-teamed and you could ISO him up against a single defender while the other 4 cleared the floor on the opposite end. You can't do that anymore. Defenders had to play man-to-man defense at all times and couldn't do some of the things we see today like hedge.
NCAA basketball fucking sucks. I don't think it teaches kids anything, especially in modern days where they are used as props for big schools to make money.

well 95 also had that short 3 point line.. I forgot about that.. To be honest illegal D was big, but they removed that in 01 but you see that o spike in 05 when they got rid of hand checking completely tho.. because you could double off ball and jam a dude up legally..

And NCAA since the one done and since teams were drafting out of high school has been shit but that is kinda why..

I don't think you can appreciate the NCAA (some schools) unless you follow guys from high school that aren't top recruits.

By p s y Go To PostSpurs just lost to the Suns. Booker with 39, Kawhi with 38.

pkaz your tank efforts are pitiful.

Miami is getting that #1 pick.

Sigh it realy is, terrible for the tank but fuck the spurs for life

I don't know that I buy the "players would be better if they go through NCAA" argument. Durant, Lebron, Westbrook, Garnett, Kobe, Cousins, Davis, etc. were all 1 and done or straight from HS and they are some of the best talent this league has seen. Great talent strives.

By DY_nasty Go To Postman fuck basketball

https://www.instagram.com/p/BPQzAGJAOji/?taken-by=famouslos32&hl=en

Yo wtf that kid came off of a trampoline to block that shit.

Kid has broken the Matrix, agents are coming for that ass.

By DY_nasty Go To PostI don't think you can appreciate the NCAA (some schools) unless you follow guys from high school that aren't top recruits.

I can buy how it could help groom lesser players into better players, but that's also something the NBA could do if it improved the D-League into a real farm system. High School kids being drafted then doing 1-year mandatory stint playing against real NBA comp in the D-League with a real learning system in place would be better for the league and the players, where they aren't bogged down by NCAA bullshit.

By reilo Go To PostI don't know that I buy the "players would be better if they go through NCAA" argument. Durant, Lebron, Westbrook, Garnett, Kobe, Cousins, Davis, etc. were all 1 and done or straight from HS and they are some of the best talent this league has seen. Great talent strives.

Peak talent is gonna be peak talent regardless.

The NBA's overall quality has improved (imo) because these role players are better than ever - and that's due to the NCAA and international leagues taking massive strides.

The NCAA in particular is going through a huge shift and has been for years because mid-majors are routinely handing out work to top programs. The talent gap in the NCAA between powerhouse schools and mid-levels has shrunk drastically.

By DY_nasty Go To PostI don't think you can appreciate the NCAA (some schools) unless you follow guys from high school that aren't top recruits.

Jason Terry is a perfect example of this

By reilo Go To PostI don't know that I buy the "players would be better if they go through NCAA" argument. Durant, Lebron, Westbrook, Garnett, Kobe, Cousins, Davis, etc. were all 1 and done or straight from HS and they are some of the best talent this league has seen. Great talent strives.

LeBron didn't know how to use a screen for like 6 years in the NBA tho..

Stauskas just crossed up Oubre so bad he should be out of the league

By reilo Go To PostI can buy how it could help groom lesser players into better players, but that's also something the NBA could do if it improved the D-League into a real farm system. High School kids being drafted then doing 1-year mandatory stint playing against real NBA comp in the D-League with a real learning system in place would be better for the league and the players, where they aren't bogged down by NCAA bullshit.

I think the real argument isn't that the NCAA is bull shit for development. But the 1 and done structure is REALLY bad for development.

By giririsss Go To PostI think the real argument isn't that the NCAA is bull shit for development. But the 1 and done structure is REALLY bad for development.

bingo.. of course drafting Kwame Brown directly from HS was also bad..

By DY_nasty Go To Postman fuck basketball

https://www.instagram.com/p/BPQzAGJAOji/?taken-by=famouslos32&hl=en

love how every HS kid's mixtape has a wild and violent pin block like this in the cut

NBA needs to push the D-league and turn it into a viable option opposed to going to college or over seas.

By p s y Go To PostNBA needs to push the D-league and turn it into a viable option opposed to going to college or over seas.

100% agree... say fuck NCAA like MLB did and drop the min age and expand the draft to 3 or 4 rounds..

Okafor out there stunting today..

Thank you Suns!

By reilo Go To PostHonestly I think the league currently just has the best offensive talent we might have ever seen. Team schemes, scouting and film/data has made everyone hyper efficient, and I think the league is better for it.

104.7 in recent times (pre-All Star break) nets you:
15/16: 20th
14/15: 21st
13/14: 20th
12/13: 23rd
11/12: 25th

I agree it isn't just defenses getting worse. Probably other factors involved, but for me, it's just teams across the league valuing the 3-point shot more. I was going to use Memphis as an example of this (since they've lit us up this season), but their numbers may be a bit wonky due to their injuries. On average for the league, though:

By p s y Go To PostNBA needs to push the D-league and turn it into a viable option opposed to going to college or over seas.

Max contract will be $225k or something as opposed to 50-75k next season. That should help

By pilonv1 Go To PostStauskas just crossed up Oubre so bad he should be out of the league

https://twitter.com/World_Wide_Wob/status/820449478108966912

Yoooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

By p s y Go To PostNBA needs to push the D-league and turn it into a viable option opposed to going to college or over seas.

The new CBA is definitely pointing in that direction. Gonna be easier for teams to hold/lay claim to their d-league guys.

The NBA would definitely benefit from a third and fourth round too. This past draft was crazy. A lot of really good NCAA guys got put aside simply because it was easier for teams to stash guys.

i loved bill simmons idea of making the draft a 2 day event--day 1 is just the lottery, day 2 is the rest of the 1st round all the way to a third round

By etiolation Go To Post*snip*

Don't forget to look at fouls and FTAs-against. You also just have more players at more positions taking threes and making them at better percentages than in the past. Which is leaving the paint more open which can lead to higher fg% in the paint (due to fewer defenders) and more FTAs (to stop the easy layup/dunk). Teams are also more willing to let players other than the lead ball-handler initiate and create offense for others to keep defenses more off-balance. It probably helps that more people can handle the ball at an acceptable level now.

Oh, also, you want to look at DReb%. It don't matter as much if you make your opponents miss more often if you can't ever secure rebounds to actually end the possession. Case in point was the Pels vs the Bulls tonight.

Another way to look at 3pt defense is points-per-possesion-from-3PTAs. That would work to combine both the 3pt% and 3pta stats. Not sure if any site calculates that, though. And I sure as hell don't feel like spending the next 30 minutes to figure it out myself.

Maybe I should learn how to use R and become better at statistical analysis so I can apply for a stats analyst position for the Pels and get paid peanuts for doing more work for less appreciation than I am now.

Elfrid Payton is killing us. I'm feeling a L here

42 points in a quarter is the most the Jazz allowed this season.. and its to Orlando.
wtf

I'm just stream-of-consciousness posting now, but whatever. I want to reiterate that shooting percentages in-and-of-themselves are not solely indicative of defense. You have to look at what actually ends possessions:

1. Made shot
2. Free throws
3. Turnover
4. Defensive rebounds
5. End of quarter without a shot (rare, but it happens and doesn't count as a turnover, iirc)

So, yeah. Dallas fouls. A lot. And also give up the worst eFG% in the league. That is a really bad mix for a defense.

By Kibner Go To PostDon't forget to look at fouls and FTAs-against. You also just have more players at more positions taking threes and making them at better percentages than in the past. Which is leaving the paint more open which can lead to higher fg% in the paint (due to fewer defenders) and more FTAs (to stop the easy layup/dunk). Teams are also more willing to let players other than the lead ball-handler initiate and create offense for others to keep defenses more off-balance. It probably helps that more people can handle the ball at an acceptable level now.

FTr is down overall though, but the teams who give up less free throws are also good defensive teams so there is some correlation. The issue with the FTr (% of FGA leading to FTs) is the new Shaq rule this year. will drop FTr for a handful of teams with bad FT shooters. However the drop in a ten year gap is like .327 to .270, which is big drop within that category.

Shots at the rim are about as frequent and made at about the same % now as they were ten years ago. Teams shot better from within 3ft of the hoop 5 years ago then they do now though. League wide rate of those shots are pretty consistent over the years.

Alec Burks is still an incredible talent

By diehard Go To PostElfrid Payton is killing us. I'm feeling a L here

What a terrible feeling.

How in the world is Elfird Payton dominating like this? What the fuck.