NBA Oct/Nov 2016 | Low-Key Beasts & Where To Find Them

Honestly, once we get healthy, our schedule eases up, maybe our offense improves a smidgen, we'll probably limp our way to the 8 seed.

How do stats like that figure in injuries?

By Tea Go To PostHow do stats like that figure in injuries?

They don't. It's a summary of games played, not predicative.

If you want a good idea about lineups, check each team's Basketball Reference lineup page.

For example, here's Portland's most used and overall best lineup:


And Portland's worst...


😰

By reilo Go To PostThey don't. It's a summary of games played, not predicative.

Oh then pffft.

Some teams got fucked schedules already or people are already injured.

By Tea Go To PostOh then pffft.

Some teams got fucked schedules already or people are already injured.

Check my edit.

Evan Turner seems like a grand miscalculation to me. He still isn't doing shit all.

By reilo Go To PostExcept by your own argument the Pacers are pretenders. They have a negative PPG differential.

That ranking has them 11th in the East, by differential they're 9th, hence the "I'd have them a bit higher."

That being said, I also think they're underperforming with a slow start because they're trying to integrate new parts that don't fit that well together, but I think there's enough talent that they'll figure it out in the end. A -1.6 is far from impossible to come back from. I don't see Miami making it, with Indy & Milwaukee duelling for the 8th seed.

His shooting needs to uptick a bit (40.2% atm), but he's been our most reliable bench contributor and provides a secondary look (Crabbe still can't dribble, nor pass, and Napier is one-dimensional in the worst way, and the rest of the bench are hopeless facilitators/ballhandlers) that the bench unit lacked last year. In fact, he's featured in some of Portland's Net Positive lineups, just not when they go really small like that one.


Basically, Portland's small ball lineups are terrible.

Gathered some generic definitions of some of the stat thingies that were recently talked about.

SRS: uses a team's point differential and strength of schedule to assign a rating to each team, with 0.0 considered average. The difference in two teams' SRS ratings can be considered to be a point spread should they play each other, disregarding home field advantage.

Net Rtg: the difference in ORtg and DRtg

Pythag Wins: the formula is Games * (Team Points / (Team Points + Opponent Points))

SoS: Strength of Schedule indicates the combined winning percentages of the opponents this team played in a given year

They all use point differential in some form or fashion with SRS also taking into account SoS.

Reilo, I appreciate you using +/- in the way it is most effectively used right there. Warms the cockles of my heart.

Though switching out McCollum for Crabbe in that small ball lineup makes a huge difference (25.5). I don't know the team well enough to theorize as to why that may be. It could even just be a matter of opponent. Like, some players are only put in games they matchup well in. Maybe it's the same for certain lineups.

NBA Oct/Nov 2016 | Reilo Just Warmed Kibner's Cockles

By Kibner Go To PostReilo, I appreciate you using +/- in the way it is most effectively used right there. Warms the cockles of my heart.

Yea, I was trying to avoid showcasing garbage time lineups (a few due to the blowouts that are hovering around 20mins) and wanted to showcase the most played line-ups. It's the reason why I'm still optimistic... the "traditional" (in today's NBA, at best) with Aminu that has played the most minutes sports a ridiculous +14.1 rating, which is really really good.

Here are the Warriors Top 3 lineups:



HUGE drop-off from #3 to #4. Their second most played lineup is absolute killer, but as you can see their most used line-up is an outstanding +16.2. Portland has way too many variance in their line-ups. Mostly (I think) is due to Aminu's injury, which is forcing Stotts to try and find a "hot hand" off the bench. I think he just needs to bite the bullet for a while and run a consistent rotation even at the expense of developing some of the young guys. If he wants to do that, then pull a Popovich on back-to-backs like I proposed against the Cavaliers.

As another point of reference, the Clippers:

Good call. The Pels have only five lineups with more than 20 minutes played on the season:



Note that three of these are no longer available due to injury and/or release (Cunningham and Stephenson).

wow we don't even have a single 5 man lineup over 100 minutes played.

aslo, the performance of the new stats.nba site is way better with the update.

Spurs:

By WWCHGT Go To Postwow we don't even have a single 5 man lineup over 100 minutes played.

Not having any consistent lineups is a good indicator of a team that is losing a lot of games, unfortunately. It's usually either because of injury or the inability of the coach to find a group that works well together so he is constantly trying out new things.

By Kibner Go To PostNot having any consistent lineups is a good indicator of a team that is losing a lot of games, unfortunately. It's usually either because of injury or the inability of the coach to find a group that works well together so he is constantly trying out new things.

Yeah, Winslow who's in all of our best lineups has missed the last 7 games with a wrist injury. Our defense has been bad in his absence & Spobot is scrambling. I'm hoping the team isn't hiding that it's fractured or anything.

FYI, the Knicks:



"Good luck"

stats.nba.com has more lineups and is possibly more accurate since they may not need to rely on play-by-play to get their information.

It even can show net rating and such, if you want: http://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612740

Stats.Nba say they use actual possessions instead of estimates for their per 100 stats. Does that automatically make their ortg & drtg reading better than BBalllref?

NBA's are kinda annoying since their lineups are per-game, and not an aggregate. So best way to get a key +/- stat is to filter it based on MPG and GP.

BBRef and stats.nba seem to disagree with what the +/- is for the various Pelican lineups. Hrrmmm...

By reilo Go To PostNBA's are kinda annoying since their lineups are per-game, and not an aggregate.

You just have to change one of the filters to be "Totals" instead of "Per Game". http://stats.nba.com/lineups/traditional/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612740&sort=MIN&dir=1&PerMode=Totals&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals

By Kibner Go To PostYou just have to change one of the filters to be "Totals" instead of "Per Game". http://stats.nba.com/lineups/traditional/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612740&sort=MIN&dir=1&PerMode=Totals&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals

Oh! Okay.

By WWCHGT Go To PostStats.Nba say they use actual possessions instead of estimates for their per 100 stats. Does that automatically make their ortg & drtg reading better than BBalllref?

Generally, yes. At the end of the season, it is usually just a tiny difference.

Lakers overachieving and getting the 9th seed is gonna hurt.


But then that keeps us in the game to keep our pick 😈

Y'all ready for the frozen ping pong balls?👹

Also, to clarify, BB Ref Net Rating is per 100 possessions. NBA.com utilizes a raw +/- total, e.g.


Tells a very similar story though.

BTW, definitely check out the "Tracking" category on stats.nba. They use those Synergy cameras and such to track different things. You can't get those stats on demand from anyone else without paying money. It can show them by team or by player. http://stats.nba.com/teams/speed-distance/

Turner is still a bad fit on all the websites

By reilo Go To PostBasically, Portland's small ball lineups are terrible.

Is that because outside of Aminu all of their smalls are average or worse defenders?

Don't have time to go digging atm my self.

By blackace Go To PostTurner is still a bad fit on all the websites

He's featured in 3 of the most played line-ups on BBRef where Portland has a positive net differential, so that doesn't make any sense?

By giririsss Go To PostIs that because outside of Aminu all of their smalls are average or worse defenders?

Don't have time to go digging atm my self.

I think our bigs are bad defenders as well, especially against PFs. I love what Ed Davis brings, but he's not a competent defender in big minutes against good PFs. He's just too slow laterally and not long enough in post defense situations. Portland also loves to switch on PnRs, and he's a huge step down from Aminu in those situations against guards for obvious reasons. Plumlee is an improvement over Ed as a defender but the league has some great and tough to guard centers and he struggles for big stretches. Do I even need to mention Meyers and Noah as defenders?

By reilo Go To PostHe's featured in 3 of the most played line-ups on BBRef where Portland has a positive net differential, so that doesn't make any sense?

No he is hidden in those lineups and featured in their worse lineups... Does tie need to defend Evan Turner keep you youthful or something?

By reilo Go To PostI think our bigs are bad defenders as well, especially against PFs. I love what Ed Davis brings, but he's not a competent defender in big minutes against good PFs. He's just too slow laterally and not long enough in post defense situations. Portland also loves to switch on PnRs, and he's a huge step down from Aminu in those situations against guards for obvious reasons. Plumlee is an improvement over Ed as a defender but the league has some great and tough to guard centers and he struggles for big stretches. Do I even need to mention Meyers and Noah as defenders?

Oh, i think Plumlee will be the starter going forward if he isn't already. Until Ezeli is back. For those reasons.

And yeah, I used to be a fan of Ed Davis when he was in Toronto. But despite putting up statistics, he seems to make teams worse where ever he goes. His stint on the Grizz made me think unfavorably of him as a starter.

But the bigs being average is one thing (I think Plumlee is an average defender). It just seems that the only 2 people playing defense at any competent level are Aminu and Plumlee. The rest either aren't good, or aren't trying that hard.

That's not me picking on Lillard. That's me picking on ALL of them. Portlands defensive regression has really been something. And that's for a top6 in MPG that is basically the same (given, crabble has only played 1 game). So it's not like a huge roster shake up.

I had portland as a top4 team lock. But ugh. They're playing nelly ball defense.

What do you mean "hidden"? He's a bench player. I don't understand. I think your hate for him is irrational and you're trying to Trump your way around some numbers that are clear as day.

Yes Blackace is a tyrant. I agree. He must be stopped.

By giririsss Go To PostOh, i think Plumlee will be the starter going forward if he isn't already. Until Ezeli is back. For those reasons.

He's a permanent starter for a while now, I don't think Ezeli will change that. He's such a good ballhandler for his size and our second best distributor. Only question is whether he'll be around next year since he's a RFA.

By giririsss Go To PostAnd yeah, I used to be a fan of Ed Davis when he was in Toronto. But despite putting up statistics, he seems to make teams worse where ever he goes. His stint on the Grizz made me think unfavorably of him as a starter.

I don't think that's true within a good fit. If he's coming off the bench, he's great in that role. He's starting right now due to Aminu's injury.

By giririsss Go To PostBut the bigs being average is one thing (I think Plumlee is an average defender). It just seems that the only 2 people playing defense at any competent level are Aminu and Plumlee. The rest either aren't good, or aren't trying that hard.

That goes a long way with good team defense, and it showed last year when Portland got into a groove. There's no reason for them to be this abysmal defensively when in theory they should be improving from last year when they finished 20th in DRtg and flirted with 15th for a good stretch.

By giririsss Go To PostThat's not me picking on Lillard. That's me picking on ALL of them. Portlands defensive regression has really been something. And that's for a top6 in MPG that is basically the same (given, crabble has only played 1 game). So it's not like a huge roster shake up.

I had portland as a top4 team lock. But ugh. They're playing nelly ball defense.

I think that's fair. Their offense is great and getting better, but the defense is just so bad right now and I can't explain it without hyping up Aminu's worth. Not sure why that's controversial.

I really want to know how Crabbe, Meyers and Vonleh are "covering" for Turner when the only legit/above-average player amongst that point-positive group is CJ. He's good but not that kind of good. Or in a +14 lineup (44 minutes played) where Stotts subs out Davis and CJ for Crabbe and Turner.

By reilo Go To PostWhat do you mean "hidden"? He's a bench player. I don't understand. I think your hate for him is irrational and you're trying to Trump your way around some numbers that are clear as day.

Will you call me out when he has a 14 point game? lol

But what does him being a bench player have to do with him being hidden by better players in certain lineups? He paid like a starter and plays with the starters a lot but when he is featured in 2 unit lineups he is pretty bad and was a bad signing a fit for Portland.

By WWCHGT Go To PostYes Blackace is a tyrant. I agree. He must be stopped.

Tears of a clowm

Does 12PPG over his last 9 count, including games of 14, 19, 17 and 15 points in that stretch?



But he clearly doesn't play with the starters a lot, he plays with two maybe three because Stotts staggers his starting lineup. It's what any good coach does. No team in the league that's worth a lick refuses to stagger their starters.

To clarify: Turner will never play with a pure bench unit in Portland because Stotts rarely uses a line-up that doesn't feature either Damian or CJ and another starter. That's his standard rotation and staggering his lineups is incredibly smart thing to do. When Damian or CJ are on the bench, the other will be on the floor at all times along with another starter.

http://elitesportsny.com/2016/11/28/new-york-knicks-frustrating-start-joakim-noahs-tenure/

By reilo Go To PostDoes 12PPG over his last 9 count, including games of 14, 19, 17 and 15 points in that stretch?



But he clearly doesn't play with the starters a lot, he plays with two maybe three because Stotts staggers his starting lineup. It's what any good coach does. No team in the league that's worth a lick refuses to stagger their starters.

If Turner avgerages a point per million dollars on his contract I will ease off

So Mike Conley is an awful player then, got it. Mike Conley better average 34PPG come 2021.

By reilo Go To PostSo Mike Conley is an awful player then, got it.

Mike wouldnt be worth that contract to most teams but he was worth it to the Grizz... but nice try tho

Boy if you could only apply that logic to every player signed, especially most small market teams. If only!

By reilo Go To PostBoy if you could only apply that logic to every player signed, especially most small market teams. If only!

I do... and Turner was a horrible signing by that logic to me...

Who else was available? Cap money is use it or lose it.