By DY_nasty Go To PostThere isn't even a jerryd bayless herehey man Bayless HS highlight tape is one of the best of all time
By Dark PhaZe Go To PostAny preference between Sarr and Risascher?Sarr and it's not close.
By Christberg Go To PostSpeaking of draft day hot takes, what’s the verdict on Jared McCain? Seems kinda underrated.He's the prospect people who don't like Reed Sheppard think he is--similar size and wingspan, but a worse athlete, not really a point guard level passer (sub 1.5 AST:TO), not a special defender (by either box score or RAPM stats), doesn't generate defensive events at a high rate, very good (but probably not elite) shooter who did pretty much all his damage on stationary catch and shoots and wasn't good off motion (32% off screens, took 17 more OTD threes than Reed but made only 1 more than he did). And he's old for a freshman, too--will be almost 21 his first year in the league. I don't really think he's underrated, his "reasonable" good outcomes are in solid role player territory which seems about right for where he's being mocked (e.g. #15 in Givony's latest big board).
By Dark PhaZe Go To PostUh oh. About to get hip checked again.From the top rope
Vince McMahon couldn't have written it better
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostSharp what do you think the Spurs do, Castle and Tidjane or Matas and Carter?Based on the way they've been drafting, probably only Tidjane and Matas fit what they've been looking for perfectly. They haven't drafted anyone in the first round who wasn't one and done since Derrick White 7 years ago (under a different GM)--why they stopped, I have no clue, considering he's the second best player they drafted in that time and the only one better was the most obvious pick since 2003. That probably rules out Devin Carter. Castle fits the athletic profile they like and had amazing defensive impact metrics, but publicly announcing that you don't want to play any position but PG might dock him some points on their internal board since it's kind of the opposite of the interview answers they're typically looking for and they're known to heavily prioritize "character" stuff. Matas and Tidjane have great frames for their position, youth, reasonable athleticism for their size, can't shoot, and have "intangibles," which is what they've been prioritizing over stuff like "actually proved they can play basketball."
For Wemby's sake, I'm hoping they get their heads out of their asses and stop drafting that way this year since it has essentially never worked out for them, so this isn't actually a projection of what they're going to do, especially not with such high picks. But theoretically that's what would fit the best.
Edit: I take it back, Vassell (the third best player they drafted in the first round in that time) played two years of college. That was also a pick by the former GM though, and he was still only 20 his first year in the league. That's a bit different from picking someone like Carter who will turn 23 before the end of next season.
I'd add that someone like Nikola Topic is the "good" version of what the Spurs seem to be going for most years, even though people aren't really talking much about him anymore. One of the youngest players in the draft, but he was actually super productive instead of bad. Very big for a guard even if he's not the best athlete in the world, which fits their desire for positional size. Strong shooting indicators even though the shot isn't actually falling, which potentially makes him undervalued compared to their internal projections. Possibly falling way below his original slot due to the injury / wingspan, which could put him into the range of their #8 pick or even lower. I feel like if they take a guard with #8 instead of #4, there's a good chance it's him, and if they think interest isn't that high they might even try to trade back for him.
By Sharp Go To PostSarr and it's not close.
Thank god it's not Risacher.
I wouldn’t be even a little surprised if the Spurs took Topic, even at 4. Seems kinda obvious to me.
Finally watched some video of Risacher and he looks pretty good, if you were picking late lottery. Unathletic wing with no plus wingspan who can't really shoot or create and might be going #1? Yikes
By Sharp Go To PostBased on the way they've been drafting, probably only Tidjane and Matas fit what they've been looking for perfectly. They haven't drafted anyone in the first round who wasn't one and done since Derrick White 7 years ago (under a different GM)–why they stopped, I have no clue, considering he's the second best player they drafted in that time and the only one better was the most obvious pick since 2003. That probably rules out Devin Carter. Castle fits the athletic profile they like and had amazing defensive impact metrics, but publicly announcing that you don't want to play any position but PG might dock him some points on their internal board since it's kind of the opposite of the interview answers they're typically looking for and they're known to heavily prioritize "character" stuff. Matas and Tidjane have great frames for their position, youth, reasonable athleticism for their size, can't shoot, and have "intangibles," which is what they've been prioritizing over stuff like "actually proved they can play basketball."
For Wemby's sake, I'm hoping they get their heads out of their asses and stop drafting that way this year since it has essentially never worked out for them, so this isn't actually a projection of what they're going to do, especially not with such high picks. But theoretically that's what would fit the best.
Edit: I take it back, Vassell (the third best player they drafted in the first round in that time) played two years of college. That was also a pick by the former GM though, and he was still only 20 his first year in the league. That's a bit different from picking someone like Carter who will turn 23 before the end of next season.
I think after seeing what the Celtics have done they have to be thinking big guards and forwards only, if you can just put + defenders with Victor then the offense could be a little ugly and they could still do damage. I keep reading that they love Castle and he fits into that nonsense they tried earlier in the season where nobody in the starting 5 was under 6'5". They're probably gonna try and run that back so Castle makes sense, and Reed is probably gone at 4.
I hope they don't take Knetch at 8 😬
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostI think after seeing what the Celtics have done they have to be thinking big guards and forwards only, if you can just put + defenders with Victor then the offense could be a little ugly and they could still do damage. I keep reading that they love Castle and he fits into that nonsense they tried earlier in the season where nobody in the starting 5 was under 6'5". They're probably gonna try and run that back so Castle makes sense, and Reed is probably gone at 4.I see the vision for sure. But the reality is that the only time the Spurs ever looked competent last year is when they ran Wemby with Tre Jones, a midget who isn't even a great shooter. Because he has actual PG skills. Of course you want skilled size if it's available, but when that doesn't exist in a draft class you should almost always go with skill over size.
I hope they don't take Knetch at 8 😬
I do like Castle as a prospect because his "beyond the box score" defense is very tangibly real in a way most prospects' perimeter defense isn't. But I don't think he's a real point guard, and he doesn't actually have positional size at his natural position. Plus, while it's fine not to care too much about the short term when planning for the future, half the point of having a center like Wemby on your team is that you can play five out. Why would you negate that by taking a nonshooter at point? Not saying he 100% won't ever become a shooter, just that he didn't show anything as a prospect to make me think he will (and I don't really trust their shooting development with Chip Engelland in OKC). Feels like a big reach to me to take him at #4. Still think it's one of the better alternatives compared to guys like Salaun and Buzelis where they might not even be good at basketball.
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostAlso, he's getting close to 6 ft, just turned 13That footwork looking solid! Just needs to add pace to it but that'll come naturally as he becomes more athletic.
That trainer has helped several D1 players
By reilo Go To PostLegacy league being a thing is a thingYeah this would more apply to Devin Carter (or doubly for Reed Sheppard lol). But it's probably part of how Klutch tries to sell Bronny to dumb front offices. I don't think the other two need a "nepo boost."
But not for Bronny lol
By Sharp Go To PostYeah this would more apply to Devin Carter (or doubly for Reed Sheppard lol). But it's probably part of how Klutch tries to sell Bronny to dumb front offices. I don't think the other two need a "nepo boost."Helps if your pops isn't a bum
The interviewer is also lying in the video, he only had one year of HS shooting well from three and it was his senior year at 43% (on less than 50 attempts). Two other years of high school he shot below 30% and the other one he shot below 20%. Now in the G league he shot 26%. So 4 of the last 5 years, he's shot below 30% on low volume with a bad to meh FT%. Not saying people can't improve as shooters at his age but pretending this is some sort of outlier year and everyone knows he's secretly a good shooter is extremely funny.
By reilo Go To PostHe also weighs ten pounds soaking wetNot super worried about a 6'9" 19 year old who already weighs 200 pounds being too skinny for the league. Much more concerned about his strongest basketball skill outside of height being "delusional self-confidence" (which is kind of an important skill honestly, but not if you're bad).
Still get Wiseman PTSD whenever I see any Sarr footage. He's definitely better defensively already but everything else looks concerning.
By pilonv1 Go To PostStill get Wiseman PTSD whenever I see any Sarr footage. He's definitely better defensively already but everything else looks concerning.Well Wiseman played like three games in college, but when he got a larger sample he always sucked massively in box score stats. Sarr's box score stats are actually pretty good (per 36), and his on/off being Wiseman tier has been semi convincingly explained away as his team trying to use him in a super weird and dumb defensive scheme because he insisted he wasn't a center. So I've come around on him a bit, but I'm still not that excited about him. Especially if he refuses to play his natural position which it seems like might be the case. I also would rather hear people explaining how a guy dominated their conference than having to excuse and justify why he didn't.
You could see Wiseman’s limitations in high school. Just physical stuff like only being able to dominate when he could run in a straight line towards the rim. Not sure there were any highlights when he needed to go around someone or do any kind of navigation in traffic.
I know his numbers are decent but it's the negatives that feel. Not strong enough, doesn't play with power, doesn't set great screens, can't rebound, jump shot isn't there.
I get that part of it is that the NBL is a professional league and it's not historically been kind to big men, and coaches here hate players that make mistakes. He's clearly leaps and bounds ahead of Wiseman defensively, who was just a rim protector, but everything else is a bit meh.
That said I can see why the Wizards would be interested at #2 over Clingan
I get that part of it is that the NBL is a professional league and it's not historically been kind to big men, and coaches here hate players that make mistakes. He's clearly leaps and bounds ahead of Wiseman defensively, who was just a rim protector, but everything else is a bit meh.
That said I can see why the Wizards would be interested at #2 over Clingan
By Kibner Go To PostYou could see Wiseman’s limitations in high school. Just physical stuff like only being able to dominate when he could run in a straight line towards the rim. Not sure there were any highlights when he needed to go around someone or do any kind of navigation in traffic.
I never thought that was much of a limitation given he was going to play with Steph, Klay & Dray. I thought he'd get plenty of buckets the way they got them for Bogut, McGee, Ezili and Zaza, purely by being open around the bucket. But he wanted to be the focal point, not fit within the system.
He just needed to be competent at the other aspects of the game to fit. But it turned out he couldn't rebound, fouled way too much (often needlessly), chased blocks over rebounding, and couldn't set a screen without running to the post and expecting the ball.
Finally watched some more scouting vids. So many of these guys I'd be comfortable picking in the 6-10 range but if I had a top 5 pick I'd be desperate to trade down.
- Didn't know Sheppard shot so well off the dribble.
- Was impressed how well Clingan played drop coverage, as well as his passing.
- Castle moves very well defensively but LOL at wanting to be a PG. Feel like he'd be a good fit for the Spurs though if they had a real point guard.
- Buzelis is... IDK. There's something possibly there I guess, but there's a lot of what ifs besides his size and weakside defensive help.
- Holland's motor impressed me and I don't know how much of his bad numbers to attribute to the Ignite being a dumpster fire. Feels like he'd be a good fit on a team where he doesn't have to create for himself so much. Not really many of those spots in the lottery though. Maybe the Bulls now with Giddey there?
- Didn't know Sheppard shot so well off the dribble.
- Was impressed how well Clingan played drop coverage, as well as his passing.
- Castle moves very well defensively but LOL at wanting to be a PG. Feel like he'd be a good fit for the Spurs though if they had a real point guard.
- Buzelis is... IDK. There's something possibly there I guess, but there's a lot of what ifs besides his size and weakside defensive help.
- Holland's motor impressed me and I don't know how much of his bad numbers to attribute to the Ignite being a dumpster fire. Feels like he'd be a good fit on a team where he doesn't have to create for himself so much. Not really many of those spots in the lottery though. Maybe the Bulls now with Giddey there?
By reilo Go To PostThat footwork looking solid! Just needs to add pace to it but that'll come naturally as he becomes more athletic.
Yeah he struggles with explosiveness at times, but we know he can because he's a top 3 long jumper for his grade in Manhattan and also was top 5 in the 200. His biggest hurdle is getting low, he has high hips but I'm working with him on that.
By DY_nasty Go To Postbricks yal gonna make it
College is the goal, Allah willing he gets his grandfather's height of 6'4.5" no shoes
Pelton's board presumably final update.
Top 30:
1. Isaiah Reed Sheppard (already #1 in stats, public rankings just had to catch up)
2. Donovan Clingan (high volume 60% finisher with good passing and similar rim protection projections to guys like Mitch Robinson and Kessler)
3. Alex Sarr (like I said, good box score numbers)
4. Zach Edey (loves his offense, hates his defense but not that much)
5. Johnny Furphy (Pelton's model is super high on him for reasons that seem legit... but all the people who actually watched Furphy hate him, so I dunno)
6. Ja'Kobe Walter (3P% projection models love him but [IMO] for reasons that might not fully translate)
7. Zaccharie Risacher (description is all cope to explain why it's fine he has the 55th best stats only projection, similar to Scoot last year)
8. Jared McCain (another "3P% projection loves this guy" situation)
9. Kyshawn George (again, feel like the 3P% projection model needs tweaks, but 41% from three at 6'10" is VERY intriguing so this one I get more)
10. Stephon Castle (Pelton thinks he'll beat his stat only projections, which I agree with)
11. Rob Dillingham (defensive negative)
12. Cam Christie (intriguing and unexpected name, need to learn more)
13. Devin Carter (actually very surprised to find him high here, his model usually hates prospects that have breakout seasons when they're this old, so this is a pretty good sign)
14. Tidjane Salaun (significantly better stats only projection than Risacher lol)
15. Bub Carrington (way higher stats projection than I expected, basically being very young with good feel = projections like you)
16. Matas Buzelis (also better stats only projection than Risacher, but still godawful)
17. Kyle Filipowski (kind of disappointing that he didn't rank higher than this after going back to school primarily to target this weak draft last year)
18. Nikola Topic (ouch... I can rationalize this pretty easily since he played so few minutes, but he might be a draft night faller)
19. Ryan Dunn (the more I watch him the more I feel like he's going to be an NBA player, his defense is extremely special)
20. Ron Holland (basically the same stats only projection as Salaun... still don't quite understand the "Holland for #1" stuff but I was surprised at how bad he did there)
21. Baylor Scheirman (awesome all around and a legit good shooter, 21 feels like it might be a steal)
22. Jaylen Wells (also intriguing and unexpected, 11th best stats only projection)
23. Yves Missi (pretty close between stats and consensus rank--basically just a normal backup center)
24. Tyler Smith (actually good offensive player on the Ignite, but apparently scouts are worried about his defense)
25. Jalen Bridges (tenth in stats projections as a senior? Honestly... maybe, I believe in his three and he's a legit 6'7". Feel like he has like no hype because he's a senior, but he seems like one of the best wings in the class)
26. Isaiah Collier (also pretty close between his stats and consensus rank now... feel like people know how flawed he is but believe in his potential)
27. Justin Edwards (heavily underrated according to the stats only model??? That surprised me, but it seems like it's heavily based on him being awesome in high school).
28. Jaylon Tyson (seems not amazing honestly but we're talking pick 28 here...)
29. Kel'el Ware (don't quite understand why he's so low in the stats only projection)
30. Cody Williams (still better stats only projection than Risacher, barely)
35. Dalton Knecht (lol)
45. Bronny James (better than I expected TBH)
Top 30:
1. Isaiah Reed Sheppard (already #1 in stats, public rankings just had to catch up)
2. Donovan Clingan (high volume 60% finisher with good passing and similar rim protection projections to guys like Mitch Robinson and Kessler)
3. Alex Sarr (like I said, good box score numbers)
4. Zach Edey (loves his offense, hates his defense but not that much)
5. Johnny Furphy (Pelton's model is super high on him for reasons that seem legit... but all the people who actually watched Furphy hate him, so I dunno)
6. Ja'Kobe Walter (3P% projection models love him but [IMO] for reasons that might not fully translate)
7. Zaccharie Risacher (description is all cope to explain why it's fine he has the 55th best stats only projection, similar to Scoot last year)
8. Jared McCain (another "3P% projection loves this guy" situation)
9. Kyshawn George (again, feel like the 3P% projection model needs tweaks, but 41% from three at 6'10" is VERY intriguing so this one I get more)
10. Stephon Castle (Pelton thinks he'll beat his stat only projections, which I agree with)
11. Rob Dillingham (defensive negative)
12. Cam Christie (intriguing and unexpected name, need to learn more)
13. Devin Carter (actually very surprised to find him high here, his model usually hates prospects that have breakout seasons when they're this old, so this is a pretty good sign)
14. Tidjane Salaun (significantly better stats only projection than Risacher lol)
15. Bub Carrington (way higher stats projection than I expected, basically being very young with good feel = projections like you)
16. Matas Buzelis (also better stats only projection than Risacher, but still godawful)
17. Kyle Filipowski (kind of disappointing that he didn't rank higher than this after going back to school primarily to target this weak draft last year)
18. Nikola Topic (ouch... I can rationalize this pretty easily since he played so few minutes, but he might be a draft night faller)
19. Ryan Dunn (the more I watch him the more I feel like he's going to be an NBA player, his defense is extremely special)
20. Ron Holland (basically the same stats only projection as Salaun... still don't quite understand the "Holland for #1" stuff but I was surprised at how bad he did there)
21. Baylor Scheirman (awesome all around and a legit good shooter, 21 feels like it might be a steal)
22. Jaylen Wells (also intriguing and unexpected, 11th best stats only projection)
23. Yves Missi (pretty close between stats and consensus rank--basically just a normal backup center)
24. Tyler Smith (actually good offensive player on the Ignite, but apparently scouts are worried about his defense)
25. Jalen Bridges (tenth in stats projections as a senior? Honestly... maybe, I believe in his three and he's a legit 6'7". Feel like he has like no hype because he's a senior, but he seems like one of the best wings in the class)
26. Isaiah Collier (also pretty close between his stats and consensus rank now... feel like people know how flawed he is but believe in his potential)
27. Justin Edwards (heavily underrated according to the stats only model??? That surprised me, but it seems like it's heavily based on him being awesome in high school).
28. Jaylon Tyson (seems not amazing honestly but we're talking pick 28 here...)
29. Kel'el Ware (don't quite understand why he's so low in the stats only projection)
30. Cody Williams (still better stats only projection than Risacher, barely)
35. Dalton Knecht (lol)
45. Bronny James (better than I expected TBH)
Tidjane with the ankle injury after working out with the Spurs that will prevent him from working out with other teams 🫣
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostCaitlin is throwing some crazy passes and her teammates just can't finishor even catch them, in some cases. smh.
Butterfingers like crazy
Clark should have 15+ assists
Chicago coach not calling a timeout during that run is Ham style coaching
Clark should have 15+ assists
Chicago coach not calling a timeout during that run is Ham style coaching
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostAngel is like Drummond on the glass100%
thankfully, she plays actually good defense
e: a modern rodman, tbh