By Sharp Go To PostFunnily enough, he did pretty well against Jokic but got destroyed by Embiid and Sengun. Not really sure why.
Sabonis had some success against him too. I think the difference is that Jokic is stronger, but unlike Sengun, Embiid and Sabonis he wasn't really attacking him by facing up and driving into his chest. Jokic was just trying to back him down without any real speed behind it, Sengun was just driving at him and getting him nearly under the basket before he tried to do any kind of post moves.
By Koko Go To Post#FireMalone.
Very happy all the local media guys here are calling for Kidd to be fired lol. It should have happened after last season. Could have had a real coach like Ime or Nurse. Oh well
By reilo Go To PostThe overhype of Ime is something wildIme's not overhyped.
By Sharp Go To PostIme's not overhyped.His resume is short and thin. He'll most likely turn out to be a good coach but to label him as such this early because of one Finals appearance on a stacked Boston roster (that went to multiple ECFs prior??) is a bit wild.
By reilo Go To PostHis resume is short and thin. He'll most likely turn out to be a good coach but to label him as such this early because of one Finals appearance on a stacked Boston roster (that went to multiple ECFs prior??) is a bit wild.I mean it could be a fluke, but coaching RAPM absolutely loves him and just watching the games you can see how good his teams' defensive schemes are. Last night was a perfect example, no team has been able to hold Wemby to ten points since early December. Rockets went from the 29th ranked defense to fifth in a single season, I don't think you can say that was solely the result of player acquisitions.
By reilo Go To PostI challenge you to not use RAPM in every postNo can do.
By Sharp Go To PostNo can do.😂
This stat doesn't include RAPM but anyway
It's almost as-if you surround him with good defenders his defensive rating improves as well
Beyond being 6'1" or so Dame hasn't ever really been a bad defender I don't think- really more that the teams getting built around him in Portland made 0 sense. But let's fire Terry Stotts for not being able to get a decent defense out of a 3 guard lineup and a not very mobile big and PF backing them up.
By Christberg Go To PostBeyond being 6'1" or so Dame hasn't ever really been a bad defender I don't think- really more that the teams getting built around him in Portland made 0 sense. But let's fire Terry Stotts for not being able to get a decent defense out of a 3 guard lineup and a not very mobile big and PF backing them up.Under Stotts he wasn't bad considering the circumstances, but under Billups he was definitely pretty atrocious. I'm not sure if that was Billups's fault or just because he wasn't putting in any effort since the roster wasn't really good enough to win anything.
Billups with Dame suffered a bit under the same issues that Adrian Griffin had: wrong scheme for the roster. He made a lot of the same mistakes. It's why you are seeing Portland's roster construction zag where they are looking to load up on being taller, more athletic and switchable defensively especially on the wing.
It wasn't an effort issue, Nurkic shouldn't be guarding outside of the drop just like Brook Lopez shouldn't have.
It wasn't an effort issue, Nurkic shouldn't be guarding outside of the drop just like Brook Lopez shouldn't have.
By reilo Go To PostD-EPM (what's being cited here) is literally a RAPM variant.
This stat doesn't include RAPM but anyway
It's almost as-if you surround him with good defenders his defensive rating improves as well
Step 1 serves as a jumping off point for the final calculation in step 2, making EPM a Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) calculation with a Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM) Bayesian prior. More information on each of these methods is below.
By Sharp Go To PostUnder Stotts he wasn't bad considering the circumstances, but under Billups he was definitely pretty atrocious. I'm not sure if that was Billups's fault or just because he wasn't putting in any effort since the roster wasn't really good enough to win anything.
Billups is still in the "I have no idea if this guy's a good coach or not but the team seems to love him" boat. Has been after his first season really, and at that time whole damn team knew they were getting blown up and didn't care.
Like, I want to see the guy with a team that's actually trying to win and see regular progress in terms of a cohesive gameplan. Nothing's gone in a way that makes any of that remotely feasible.
I will say that not having any idea if he's a good coach or not 4 seasons in- probably not a good sign at all. But then this stuff is frequently a rorschach test really.
He's also had terrible injury luck. Portland is 2nd behind Memphis in different starting lineups -- something like 37 in 60 games. At a certain point, that becomes a roster construction issue and the coach has to know how to handle it, too.
By pilonv1 Go To PostPeople going to start talking about Dame as a good defender yet still claim Curry is a bad doneDame is having a good year defensively and Curry is still a bad defender so that checks out.
By blackace Go To PostDame is having a good year defensively and Curry is still a bad defender so that checks out.Only starter on that 2016-17 Warriors team (Durant's first season) with a bad defensive +/- despite the team being Top 2 defensively. Quite telling.
By Sharp Go To PostD-EPM (what's being cited here) is literally a RAPM variant.How do you feel about EPM vs DARKO vs LEBRON?
By blackace Go To PostDame is having a good year defensively and Curry is still a bad defender so that checks out.
Curry is an average defender and I'll die on this hill. Wouldn't say he was good though.
By reilo Go To PostOnly starter on that 2016-17 Warriors team (Durant's first season) with a bad defensive +/- despite the team being Top 2 defensively. Quite telling.
Sorry I didn't realise it was eight years ago. Are Adam, Gondo and Smokey's teams still choking in the playoffs?
By pilonv1 Go To PostCurry is an average defender and I'll die on this hill. Wouldn't say he was good though.I guess he is average considering only 6 PGs positively contribute on D
Sorry I didn't realise it was eight years ago. Are Adam, Gondo and Smokey's teams still choking in the playoffs?
By diehard Go To PostHow do you feel about EPM vs DARKO vs LEBRON?EPM is pretty bad IMHO, I really don't like the way they market themselves and the individual values they come up with are quite unrealistic when you compare them to actual RAPM values. I doubt any team would actually find it useful for themselves
LEBRON is much better and they compare themselves more honestly to other methods, they are really nice but you have to watch out for their blind spots (the biggest one is that the three point shooting luck adjustment relies on several assumptions that are not always valid--it can be especially bad for rookies since it doesn't have any good basis for how well they "should" be shooting, but in general it's reliable / stable in smaller samples and a bit less dependent on team construction). Single-year LEBRON is also very very conservative with the actual values, which is the right thing to do except that I don't think they actually offer a multiyear version which would give you more realistic ones.
DARKO is the most interesting one. It uses a RAPM variant (time decay RAPM) that takes all a player's past performance into account rather than just the last year, but weights recent performance more, which just by itself (with no prior information) is known to outperform almost every prior informed RAPM variant that uses box score data. So they start off with a strong advantage. They are also empirically the best for player projection compared to other models. Of publicly available models, this is the one that actual team front offices say they think is the most useful.
But, the prior informed part of its model is basically a machine learning black box, and as a result the author isn't entirely certain why it's high/low on a player. This can lead to weirdness like it thinking Wemby was a top 10 player a few months ago which everybody just put down to "it's never seen someone like him before" and couldn't explain (it turned out it was probably right, or at least closer to right than the other models, but the point is that it's very hard to interpret what exactly it's seeing in someone). Its box score model is also more limited than what EPM and LEBRON (and formerly RAPTOR) seem to be using, so it can significantly undervalue certain kinds of players because it just lacks data on them. And since it's a projection system, it's a bad idea to try to use it to gauge something like who was the better player over the course of a season, since that's not what it's trying to do (this is also why it doesn't offer any sort of "total player value" estimate like the others do).
Another thing the more "complex" projection models (EPM and DARKO) don't necessarily do well if you're trying to understand player performance is that they embed a lot of assumptions that improve projections for dumb reasons. For example, taking player age and height into account is on average a good idea if you want to be an accurate projection, since on average young players are very bad and tall players are good at defense. But if you're looking for insight on a specific player--for example, one who's known for being a bad defender for their height--these assumptions can get in the way of actually seeing the truth. On the flip side, to avoid overreacting to small sample sizes, the pure RAPM models often require a large amount of data before they'll estimate a player as being far away from zero, so if you run them on people with just 1 year of data, it will always project their impact as being much closer to zero (or whatever the prior is) than it probably should.
So overall, I would say I tend to want to look at all of them (except usually EPM lol) to try to understand different aspects of how a player is performing. Time decay RAPM and multiyear RAPM are both quite useful and are the only way to ever capture the "true" value of a player, but they take a long time to gather data and suffer from recency bias and inability to spot true talent changes, respectively. There used to be a site that also showed other forms of RAPM, like turnover and rebounding RAPM, which was quite interesting, but unfortunately it's no longer maintained--I really hope it comes back (I might also just bring it back myself if no one looks interested). I usually also throw in BPM, which is a pure box score RAPM estimator (basically tries to estimate RAPM as well as possible using nothing but commonly available box score stats that go back to older years, so it has very different goals from the others). A huge advantage of BPM is that it's very simple to calculate and all the components and how they are weighted can be directly computed, so you can see exactly why it's down on a particular player, basically the polar opposite of something opaque like DARKO's prior. It also doesn't embed projection assumptions like the others do because it's just trying to be a descriptive statistic, hence why (IMO) it can be quite valuable for younger players or guys with few minutes compared to the others.
Honorable mention to the now-deceased RAPTOR, which was really cool because it split its projections into several different models including one that did and didn't take on/off data into account (DARKO also does this but its box score model is simpler) so you could see how much influence each aspect had on a given player. It was kind of like a super-BPM that was allowed to use tracking data etc. instead of being restricted to widely available box score data. This also made it a good hypothesis testing source since you could try to predict effects on +/- from box score data using it as one of your sources. But like I said, it's gone now.
By blackace Go To PostI guess he is average considering only 6 PGs positively contribute on D
See we agree then, I always knew you were one of the good ones
By Smokey Go To PostWizards drafted "Bilal Coulibaly" over this.
By friskySHOOKface Go To PostRockets gonna make a late push for the play inno, that won't happen. they are like ~7 games back with ~20 to play. Not enough time.
👀
By pilonv1 Go To PostFire Kerr???
By RAThasReturned Go To PostNot these Sacramento announcers
Which Sacramento announcers do you prefer?