In this draft it's much easier to talk yourself into trading back for Reed instead of trading up for Sarr or Cody.
Also, Dalton Knecht is either gonna be great or get someone ran out of town 😂
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostWiz are 100% taking Dillingham lolYou see it.
Also, Dalton Knecht is either gonna be great or get someone ran out of town 😂
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostWiz are 100% taking Dillingham lol
I actually saw Johnny Davis on court today. Played 8 minutes and got a rebound and a foul, no shots.
Imagine if the Wizards took Jalen Williams, Duren or even Eason.
By pilonv1 Go To PostI actually saw Johnny Davis on court today. Played 8 minutes and got a rebound and a foul, no shots.When you can take a guy who can't crack a 40 FG% in the G league you've got to do it.
Imagine if the Wizards took Jalen Williams, Duren or even Eason.
By DY_nasty Go To PostDo people not remember the hornets failing to crack 30 in a half less than week ago against GS
Persevere
Speaking of perseverance, I looked at tickets online for Charlotte hosting Brooklyn coming up next weekend, thinking I might try to catch a game for once. There are lower bowl tickets going for several hundred dollars. I'm immediately thinking where the fuck do they get off?
By DY_nasty Go To PostListed at 6'3with a 6'3 wingspan
By reilo Go To PostJJ furious
lol
By blackace Go To Postwith a 6'3 wingspanFVV has a 6'2" wingspan and had great defensive stats in college, and he's been consistently one of the best defensive guards in the league. Reed's defensive metrics are considerably better and he's bigger and has a higher vertical. Always feels weird to me when people pick on guys who are actually good at defense in college because of their size and give a pass to guys who don't even make an effort on that end just because they have a good wingspan. Dame has a fucking 6'8" wingspan and it never made him some amazing defender or got him nearly as many steals and blocks as Reed in college.
By Sharp Go To PostFVV has a 6'2" wingspan and had great defensive stats in college, and he's been consistently one of the best defensive guards in the league. Reed's defensive metrics are considerably better and he's bigger and has a higher vertical. Always feels weird to me when people pick on guys who are actually good at defense in college because of their size and give a pass to guys who don't even make an effort on that end just because they have a good wingspan. Dame has a fucking 6'8" wingspan and it never made him some amazing defender or got him nearly as many steals and blocks as Reed in college.Long wingspans are advantageous on both sides of the ball. Allowing players with longer wingspans to get shots off that players with shorter wingspans and what not. Rebounding and basically most aspects of the game has some relation to wingspan.
Sucks if you got baby arms and get judged on potential instead of effort but that's how the meat market goes. Some team will probably benefit from it later in the draft.
By blackace Go To PostLong wingspans are advantageous on both sides of the ball. Allowing players with longer wingspans to get shots off that players with shorter wingspans and what not. Rebounding and basically most aspects of the game has some relation to wingspan.I agree for bigs where wingspan has super obvious benefits, but for small guards who are constantly outreached anyway by basically everyone on court unless they have like a +8" differential, it just doesn't feel to me like there's a strong correlation between how good a defender they are and their wingspan in practice. Like sure theoretically it should help for steals, but the best guards in steals are consistently more guys who do "defensive playmaking" like they were talking about in the article Kibner linked a while back, not necessarily guys poking the ball away with their long arms. Also there's a lot of evidence that for small guards, defensive rebounding barely matters (they only get rebounds that pretty much anyone could have gotten). As for getting your shot off... I said this earlier but I feel like guys who can shoot like Reed does don't really need to see the basket and just ignore closeouts since they know NBA defenders are afraid to foul. If they get their shots blocked a couple of times by Wemby or Herb Jones they'll live with that.
Sucks if you got baby arms and get judged on potential instead of effort but that's how the meat market goes. Some team will probably benefit from it later in the draft.
I dunno. It's probably just me. Just seen way too many guard prospects praised for their defense / defensive "upside" just because of wingspan who never show any interest in defending as prospects, get drafted, then proceed to be absolutely terrible defenders in the NBA and never really get good at it.
I don't make the standards, but you asked why he listed at 8 or 9 in mocks and having baby arms is probably playing a big and part of what people mean when they say concerned about athleticism.
FVV is a great example of that. He turned out to be great but his metrics probably contributed to him being undrafted.
FVV is a great example of that. He turned out to be great but his metrics probably contributed to him being undrafted.
All I'm saying is I stanned Grayson before it was cool and now he's one trade away from achieving Middleton tier
the absolute hell of being filthy rich and having to live 6 month in a 600k city that gets a bit cold.
Rich people say the dumbest shït
Miami and Milwaukee do the Dame package if they both fail to make the finals
Miami and Milwaukee do the Dame package if they both fail to make the finals
By DiPro Go To Postthe absolute hell of being filthy rich and having to live 6 month in a 600k city that gets a bit cold.He doesn't even say anything that is specific to Milwaukee though, he just says he is lonely because his family still lives in Portland.
By blackace Go To PostLong wingspans are advantageous on both sides of the ball. Allowing players with longer wingspans to get shots off that players with shorter wingspans and what not. Rebounding and basically most aspects of the game has some relation to wingspan.
Sucks if you got baby arms and get judged on potential instead of effort but that's how the meat market goes. Some team will probably benefit from it later in the draft.
Desmond Bane got some alligator arms too and that's probably why he went so late. For scorers and playmakers I wouldn't be too worried about wingspan, someone hitting 50% of their threes I'm gonna let the wingspan stuff slide especially when it looks like he can play defense.
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostDesmond Bane got some alligator arms too and that's probably why he went so late. For scorers and playmakers I wouldn't be too worried about wingspan, someone hitting 50% of their threes I'm gonna let the wingspan stuff slide especially when it looks like he can play defense.Zion also has a below-average wingspan for an NBA guy. It does hurt him a bit, mostly when it comes to rebounding and contesting shots of players at his position.
By Kibner Go To PostZion also has a below-average wingspan for an NBA guy. It does hurt him a bit, mostly when it comes to rebounding and contesting shots of players at his position.Sure, but Zion is functionally a big. I would love to see someone break down how much relative wingspan matters by position rather than just assuming it matters uniformly for every player on the floor.
By Sharp Go To PostSure, but Zion is functionally a big. I would love to see someone break down how much relative wingspan matters by position rather than just assuming it matters uniformly for every player on the floor.I'm legit hoping the team transitions to having him match up against wings and let Trey be the other big. Engaged Zion moves better against wings than Trey, anyway. And he has been playing more of a point guard role lately, too.
By reilo Go To PostWouldn’t everything be an error of judgment with that mindset?
lol incredible
What would classify as a misapplication? Only thing I can think of is calling defensive 3 seconds on an offensive player in the paint because everything else can be argued as “from my perspective, this happened”
Season is done, they lost in the final four. The other team was faster and had a kid that was maybe 6'2" springy and could handle the ball. They were also undefeated, game was close but in the 4th one of his teammates went full Westbrook and was firing up just garbage shots and the coach couldn't take him out cause my nephew was in foul trouble. The athletic difference between the teams was pretty big too, it was like one of those March madness games where the higher ranked Wisconsin plays the SEC team that has an NBA player. There were only 3 kids on my nephews team as athletic as them, the PG but he can't shoot, the C and then my nephew, the rest were just playing in mud. I've seen the other two teams playing to get to the finals, this team smokes both.
Great season, tough end but now he's onto doing track.
Great season, tough end but now he's onto doing track.
By Sharp Go To PostSure, but Zion is functionally a big. I would love to see someone break down how much relative wingspan matters by position rather than just assuming it matters uniformly for every player on the floor.
https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com/post/wingspan_effect
Overall, after looking after the last five seasons of shooting data, players with shorter wingspans relative to their height did end up generally proving to have a minuscule advantage in shooting ability on 3PT shots, corner 3s, long twos, and free throws. Long twos, the most often off-the-dribble jump shot, showed the smallest trend between shooting ability and length, potentially a product because normally only the upper tier of shooters take this type of shot at a reasonable volume. There was still a slight trend shown in all of the shooting data, so it did not matter where the jump shot was being attempted from or how it was being shot (off the dribble, catch-and-shoot, or standstill), players with shortest “length” had a slight leg up in shooting ability generally. However, this shooting advantage for shorter armed players did not manifest into a them having a greater offensive impact and being a better overall offensive player than players with longer “length”.
This was mostly about just shooting but it did look at positions and the data is there and it shows that NBA teams value length very highly
By Εspi Go To PostWouldn’t everything be an error of judgment with that mindset?It would be actually getting a rule wrong. Like accidentally giving a team free throws on a non-shooting foul when they're not in the penalty.
What would classify as a misapplication? Only thing I can think of is calling defensive 3 seconds on an offensive player in the paint because everything else can be argued as “from my perspective, this happened”
By You got 14 bricks right there? Go To PostSeason is done, they lost in the final four. The other team was faster and had a kid that was maybe 6'2" springy and could handle the ball. They were also undefeated, game was close but in the 4th one of his teammates went full Westbrook and was firing up just garbage shots and the coach couldn't take him out cause my nephew was in foul trouble. The athletic difference between the teams was pretty big too, it was like one of those March madness games where the higher ranked Wisconsin plays the SEC team that has an NBA player. There were only 3 kids on my nephews team as athletic as them, the PG but he can't shoot, the C and then my nephew, the rest were just playing in mud. I've seen the other two teams playing to get to the finals, this team smokes both.dang, tough break
Great season, tough end but now he's onto doing track.
hopefully your nephew enjoyed the season! i know he learned alot.
By blackace Go To Posthttps://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com/post/wingspan_effectThose r^2 values in the article are really small, that tells me that wingspan explains almost none of the variation in shooting ability (and according to the article, what it does explain is that people shoot better if they have shorter wingspans). The article also found no solid correlation with overall offensive ability, either positive or negative. I would bet a lot of money that the slight correlation between shorter wingspan and better shooting is because you have to be a better shooter to get drafted if you have a bad wingspan, which counteracts the negative effects of not being able to get open as easily. Which makes sense, clearly if Sheppard was shooting like 34% from three like a lot of guard prospects with big wingspans and "projectable" shooting, nobody would want to draft him in the lottery.
This was mostly about just shooting but it did look at positions and the data is there and it shows that NBA teams value length very highly
What it doesn't talk about is the effect on team defense by position (e.g. defensive RAPM), which is what I'm a lot more interested in. All the article's examples of betting on wingspan and having it pay off were bigger guys (the shortest guy mentioned is Kawhi at 6'8", who by the way also had insane defensive metrics in college). My personal theory is that the bigger you are, the more wingspan matters. This is not just based on what I've subjectively noticed, but that past research has shown that standing reach has quadratically increasing defensive impact above a certain point--it's one of the reasons I was comfortable calling Wemby the GOAT defensive prospect. The flip side of that quadratic increase would be that you'd expect marginal differences in wingspan at short heights not to matter that much (doesn't always work that way of course, but that'd be my initial hypothesis).
I think the effects wingspan have on the defensive end are often spoke upon by analytics and gut guys.
The nut of it is all guys equal length is highly valued in the NBA.
I would say even moreso now in the more positionless era of the NBA
The nut of it is all guys equal length is highly valued in the NBA.
I would say even moreso now in the more positionless era of the NBA
By blackace Go To PostI think the effects wingspan have on the defensive end are often spoke upon by analytics and gut guys.Here's a study I found on exactly this which broke things down by position.
The nut of it is all guys equal length is highly valued in the NBA.
I would say even moreso now in the more positionless era of the NBA
The upshot: wingspan does not have significant explanatory power for guard defense (though you do have to be above 6' to be able to defend at an NBA level, which is not surprising). Wingspan's effect on defense is borderline significant for forwards and is really significant for bigs. This doesn't mean that Sheppard's defense specifically will translate to the NBA, but it at least means it shouldn't be a disqualifier.
By Sharp Go To PostHere's a study I found on exactly this which broke things down by position.Most NBA scouts and teams don't believe that to be true for some reason.
The upshot: wingspan does not have significant explanatory power for guard defense (though you do have to be above 6' to be able to defend at an NBA level, which is not surprising). Wingspan's effect on defense is borderline significant for forwards and is really significant for bigs. This doesn't mean that Sheppard's defense specifically will translate to the NBA, but it at least means it shouldn't be a disqualifier.
By blackace Go To PostMost NBA scouts and teams don't believe that to be true for some reason.You can even see in this exponential trendline (not a significant effect, but still a trend) that there's a peak for guards with the shortest wingspans (around where Reed is) before it drops, and only makes it back there once you get to huge guard wingspans like 6'8"+.
This is again presumably a selection effect, where only small wingspan guards with elite defensive metrics, like FVV or Bane, actually make it to the league. But Reed does have elite defensive metrics, so this shouldn't bode poorly for him...
By Sharp Go To PostYou can even see in this exponential trendline (not a significant effect, but still a trend) that there's a peak for guards with the shortest wingspans (around where Reed is) before it drops, and only makes it back there once you get to huge guard wingspans like 6'8"+. This is again presumably a selection effect, where only small wingspan guards with elite defensive metrics, like FVV or Bane, actually make it to the league. But Reed does have elite defensive metrics, so this shouldn't bode poorly for him…
I mean if you look at the trend of guards drafted top 5 or 6 the last number of years the guard with the shortest wingspan is Suggs and even that is longer than his height, which would put Reed squarely in 7-10 area. Right where he is mocked.
By Pac-2 Go To PostToo much (not the user) data here. Let's pause so hot takes can catch up.anything to avoid Dy and his bromance with Grayson Allen
r^2 of .10 is still mostly noise. Some of those volumes at each wingspan are tiny as well.
Using (wingspan - height) over raw wingspan would be more useful.
Using (wingspan - height) over raw wingspan would be more useful.
By blackace Go To Postanything to avoid Dy and his bromance with Grayson Allen
I'm on record saying he's waited long enough to be ROTY. If not now, when?