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By blackace Go To PostAdam pls
🤐
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bg8KxzagN7D0O16EmUO9_kCyXwthEUjKywlrWPQUQt8/edit#gid=0
Derrick White is comparable in peak impact to James Harden and Paul Pierce, with defensive impact equal to that of LeBron James. This is what frustrates me about the discourse around guard defense. It's an undeniable fact that there are guards who improve team defense by 3-4 points per 100 possessions when they're on the floor which is better than all but the most elite big men (or by 5-6 per 100 if it's Alex Caruso). But people act like guard defense doesn't matter at all and can be totally discarded when evaluating players. Like imagine if people just discarded Giannis's offensive impact because he's a big and bigs are usually bad on offense and everyone concluded Gobert is the obviously better player.
Derrick White is comparable in peak impact to James Harden and Paul Pierce, with defensive impact equal to that of LeBron James. This is what frustrates me about the discourse around guard defense. It's an undeniable fact that there are guards who improve team defense by 3-4 points per 100 possessions when they're on the floor which is better than all but the most elite big men (or by 5-6 per 100 if it's Alex Caruso). But people act like guard defense doesn't matter at all and can be totally discarded when evaluating players. Like imagine if people just discarded Giannis's offensive impact because he's a big and bigs are usually bad on offense and everyone concluded Gobert is the obviously better player.
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By reilo Go To PostGive Derrick White the MVPI don't think anyone is arguing for the second or third best player on the Celtics to get an MVP. My point is that people acted like I was completely insane for saying he was better than Jaylen Brown (and probably still will) which is utterly ridiculous. Or saying that I thought the Knicks wouldn't really be worse with him over Brunson despite Brunson being extremely good. That can only be explained by completely discounting guard defense. And when I pointed that out you all were like "yeah guard defense doesn't matter at all." So if it doesn't matter, why are there guards which impact the team defense so much? Is it just luck that over his 7 year career teams score about 3 points per 100 less with Derrick White on the court compared to the same lineup without him? Is it just his "situation" or "role" that lets him play great defense?
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IDK man, I can't really take this argument seriously for a dude that has less than a 20 USG%.
You could make the exact argument(s) about Marcus Smart, too.
And yet somehow, someway, two Marcus Smarts or two Derrick Whites don't make a Jalen Brunson to me.
You could make the exact argument(s) about Marcus Smart, too.
And yet somehow, someway, two Marcus Smarts or two Derrick Whites don't make a Jalen Brunson to me.
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By reilo Go To PostIDK man, I can't really take this argument seriously for a dude that has less than a 20 USG%.Marcus Smart is way worse on offense than Derrick White is though. Derrick is a legitimately great off ball offensive player, Marcus Smart is a mediocre on ball guy. Like I said he obviously is not as impactful on offense as Brunson, but he doesn't have to be. It's not just his defense, it's the combination of his offense and defense that makes White keep showing up on these kinds of lists.
You could make the exact argument(s) about Marcus Smart, too.
And yet somehow, someway, two Marcus Smarts or two Derrick Whites don't make a Jalen Brunson to me.
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Say it with me: Derrick White has the luxury of not being as impactful offensively because he's surrounded by better players than him
He's Aaron Gordon-tier and that's okay! Aaron Gordon languished and was overlooked until he was put next to Jokic and Jamal Murray where he became way more effective. But let's not put him in the conversation as a Top 5 guard ffs.
He's Aaron Gordon-tier and that's okay! Aaron Gordon languished and was overlooked until he was put next to Jokic and Jamal Murray where he became way more effective. But let's not put him in the conversation as a Top 5 guard ffs.
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By reilo Go To PostSay it with me: Derrick White has the luxury of not being as impactful offensively because he's surrounded by better players than himEven the worst teams in the league would benefit from a guy like him being on the floor (and his impact metrics stood out even on bad Spurs teams). But okay sure let's say his offense takes a nosedive because he has to play more on ball. His defense is still +2.8 and his offense maybe drops to a +1.5 instead of +3.5 (much bigger than the typical regression in offensive RAPM when a player switches teams, which is only about 25%). Brunson's offense is a +4.4 and defense is +0 (actually very good for a small guard BTW). So now Derrick is a +4.3 and... just as impactful as Brunson.
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Also it's not even a question of "replace Brunson with Derrick" it's a question of replace Tatum, Brown, and Holiday with average players that demand zero coverage and see what happens.
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By reilo Go To PostYou know way better than to overcredit the defense to a single player especially a point-guard.His defense might regress a little, but it's been elite by these kinds of metrics across two teams (including the terrible Spurs teams he was on, which had a huge three point defense regression the moment he left) and numerous roster changes. It's a seven year sample now.
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By Sharp Go To PostHis defense might regress a little, but it's been elite by these kinds of metrics across two teams (including the terrible Spurs teams he was on, which had a huge three point defense regression the moment he left) and numerous roster changes. It's a seven year sample now.Who was coming off the bench those years he was on the Spurs?
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By reilo Go To PostWho was coming off the bench those years he was on the Spurs?He started after DeRozan left, and RAPM is adjusted for lineup and opponents... that's the whole point of the metric. Pop also plays ridiculous numbers of lineups so there's very little risk of there being collinearity issues on the Spurs.
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+/- is useful when comparing lineups on the same team
it should not be used to compare players on different teams (even if it is the same player). +/- is a function of relative lineup quality within the context of that single, particular team.
it should not be used to compare players on different teams (even if it is the same player). +/- is a function of relative lineup quality within the context of that single, particular team.
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By Sharp Go To PostHe started after DeRozan left, and RAPM is adjusted for lineup and opponents… that's the whole point of the metric. Pop also plays ridiculous numbers of lineups so there's very little risk of there being collinearity issues on the Spurs.That's certainly a way of saying "Lonnie Walker"
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By Kibner Go To Post+/- is useful when comparing lineups on the same teamIn theory, sure. This is especially true if you're using raw +/-. But for adjusted +/- metrics, especially multiyear ones that track a player's performance through roster changes, that's less true. In practice there is a very high correlation between both offensive and defensive RAPM for a player when they switch teams, especially for offball players like White. For me, it gives added confidence that a player is being accurately estimated by these metrics if they switch teams and still have similar impact.
it should not be used to compare players on different teams (even if it is the same player). +/- is a function of relative lineup quality within the context of that single, particular team.
Now obviously this depends on the situation... Gobert going to play with two other centers for example. But I haven't seen any coherent argument for why White's defensive impact would be situationally worse going to any other team in the league, especially the Knicks when he's already had this kind of impact on multiple teams with great defensive bigs.
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By reilo Go To PostThat's certainly a way of saying "Lonnie Walker"RAPM looks at Lonnie, knows he's a -2.3 / 100 defensive player, and still thinks Derrick White was that good. Again adjusting for the quality of the players around you is literally the entire point of using RAPM over raw +/- or on/off.
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By Sharp Go To PostIn theory, sure. This is especially true if you're using raw +/-. But for adjusted +/- metrics, especially multiyear ones that track a player's performance through roster changes, that's less true. In practice there is a very high correlation between both offensive and defensive RAPM for a player when they switch teams, especially for offball players like White. For me, it gives added confidence that a player is being accurately estimated by these metrics if they switch teams and still have similar impact.Outside of like, two players, the backups on the Celtics are bad. If White's on/off stats aren't fantastic, I'd be disappointed.
In the lineups with White and without Tatum and Brown, he is a -1 with a 40% usage rate, assuming I'm reading https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/court-on-off.php?team=BOS correctly.
Tatum and Brown carry the lineups they are in, which makes the +/- of every other player on the roster wonky.
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By Kibner Go To PostOutside of like, two players, the backups on the Celtics are bad. If White's on/off stats aren't fantastic, I'd be disappointed.Tatum is great, but Brown certainly does not carry the lineups he is in. Using tiny minute samples of lineups (Derrick White is positive in the ~60 minutes he's played without them) where he's usually also playing without other starters is pretty disingenuous. In slightly larger samples, it becomes pretty obvious that White and Tatum "carry", not Jaylen:
In the lineups with White and without Tatum and Brown, he is a -1 with a 40% usage rate, assuming I'm reading https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/court-on-off.php?team=BOS correctly.
Tatum and Brown carry the lineups they are in, which makes the +/- of every other player on the roster wonky.
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612738&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628401,1627759
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612738&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628401,1628369
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612738&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628369,1627759
This trend actually becomes even worse for Jaylen and better for White and Tatum if we incorporate more data (which is essential for RAPM because it takes a long time to stabilize, usually 3 years minimum).
Notice how even with them off, the Celtics are still pretty good down any two of them, because the starting lineup is absolutely stacked. So obviously all starting Celtics will look good by raw +/-.
The larger trend is visible when you reduce it to one or two player lineups, but the purpose of RAPM is to add up all the lineup data, not just the ones you happen to notice by cherrypicking, and try to choose values for each player that produces the closest fit to the actual net rating of each lineup (with extra regression for players that haven't played many minutes to avoid overfitting). Any trend in lineup data that you notice, is already accounted for by RAPM. There is a reason that when all-in-one impact estimates choose a target metric, it's always some RAPM variant.
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By Rob Go To PostHas anyone met Sharp in real life? cuz im starting to believe that Derrick White posts on slaentMe: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
Impact stats: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
Celtics fans: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
slaent: OMG I can't believe Sharp is Derrick White's burner
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By Pac-2 Go To PostStill want to know his 40 time.
Colorado Guard Derrick White posted the second best three-quarter sprint time at 3.08 (97th percentile historically) and tied for the third best standing vertical leap at 35.5 (99th percentile historically). The D2 transfer combo guard was a rather unheralded prospect until this season. White measured 6'4.5 with shoes with a 6'7.5 wingspan which is very similar to the physical measurements of Chicago Bulls guard Jerian Grant, but his athletic testing results are very similar to those of Mike Conley's. - Source: https://www.draftexpress.com/article/2017-nba-combine-athletic-testing-analysis-5930/ ©DraftExpress
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By Sharp Go To PostMe: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.I can agree that he or Porzingis are the third best player on the Celtics. White is not a player that you can have championship aspirations with if he is your second best player. That is all I’m arguing. He’s a great player. A star in his role.
Impact stats: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
Celtics fans: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
slaent: OMG I can't believe Sharp is Derrick White's burner
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By Sharp Go To Post
Impressive.
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By Rob Go To Postim honored that i am the spokeperson for slaent but im not sure how everyone else feels about thatMy vote is for sale.
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By Rob Go To PostHas anyone met Sharp in real life? cuz im starting to believe that Derrick White posts on slaentWorked with him for over two years 😂
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By Sharp Go To PostMe: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.Don't be silly, you said he's as good as Jalen Brunson
Impact stats: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
Celtics fans: Derrick White is probably the second or third best player on the Celtics.
slaent: OMG I can't believe Sharp is Derrick White's burner
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By reilo Go To PostDon't be silly, you said he's as good as Jalen BrunsonThose are not contradictory statements. The Celtics are ridiculously stacked.
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By DY_nasty Go To Postmiles doesn't understand angles so he'll be trash forever. sad.so athletically above his peers that he never needed to
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White got hosed by the cardiac Clips doe. Can Sharp explain?
Also, is diehard the Elam fan?
If so, rip.
Also, is diehard the Elam fan?
If so, rip.
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By Kibner Go To Posti'm an elam ending fan!
The NBA All-Star Game is getting back to its roots.
The game — being played in Indianapolis for the first time since 1985 — will feature the Eastern Conference against the Western Conference, ending the All-Star Draft that’s been in place for the past six seasons. The game will also be scored like a regular-season contest instead of playing an untimed fourth quarter that ends after a team hits the "final target score" — known as an Elam Ending.
😢
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By Rob Go To Postwhens Randle coming back??ball moving well, sometimes randles stops it ;)
this is some disgusting basketball happening right now
sims doing ok so far.
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By Adam Go To PostWhite got hosed by the cardiac Clips doe. Can Sharp explain?Didn't the Celtics blow the Clippers out by like 40 points the first time they played this season?
Also, is diehard the Elam fan?
If so, rip.
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By Sharp Go To PostDidn't the Celtics blow the Clippers out by like 40 points the first time they played this season?
Kawhi-less team vs. full strength Celtics?
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By Adam Go To PostKawhi-less team vs. full strength Celtics?Celtics didn't have Porzingod.