By n8 dogg Go To PostDean berates our mother for cooking pasta too often. Please don’t give him anymore power.
cant get the good stuff every day
By Wahabipapangus Go To Postcant get the good stuff every dayThat looks fine, would eat.
WHO am Dean GUYS? Scum and me are in Peace. . Martins i pm you if i got banned again for no reason Will be a shame. But i trust Martins. MARTINS are The best user here after ME. Bye ali SLAENT .. if i made any wrong word pardon me this fórum i was The 1 user day one. Reilo knew me MORE THAN 20 YEARS
By Willkiller Go To Postoh yes pleaseIn a game of football you can be the better team and that's backed up by the individual match stats and expected goals. You can significantly outplay a team or you can narrowly outplay a team but either way you were still the better team.
Let's say a team wins 2-1 and the match stats were 60%-40% possession, 16 shots vs 8 shots with an xg of 1.6 vs 0.8. In that situation the team that won 2-1 deserved to win but with 'expected points' even tho the team that won 2-1 deserved to win 'expected points' doesn't award them 3 points it only gives them a fraction of those points in its mathematical model.
Manchester United had a lot of narrow wins this season but the vast majority were deserved because they were still the better team on the day. Teams that win big slightly more than shitting the bed in other games get more 'expected points' than teams who narrowly win. Hence why expected points are flawed.
By Eduaraujo Go To PostWHO am Dean GUYS? Scum and me are in Peace. . Martins i pm you if i got banned again for no reason Will be a shame. But i trust Martins. MARTINS are The best user here after ME. Bye ali SLAENT .. if i made any wrong word pardon me this fórum i was The 1 user day one. Reilo knew me MORE THAN 20 YEARSReirom please, I don't understand what happened? How can Villareal beat Manchester United? You said UEFA would never allow this in the WWF.
I thought you were an expert? Was this a lie? Did you lie to us?
By Cleff Go To Posttake a few days off Rashy
By Xpike Go To PostDean what is your specialty in the kitchennothing, I'm a lazy cunt
By Xpike Go To Postm8 pls at least learn how to cook some pastaMarco Pierre, Gordon Ramsay or Shanks?
Bight side - its a very young team with a higher ceiling than some think - I wish we had actual coaches who had systems that could be employed for various situations instead of the kick- and rush we currently employ.
By Freewheelin Go To Postthis is true tbh :(
I'm a picky eater ok
What about this glorious lasagne Dean?
The game exposed every single one of Ole's weaknesses:
Inability to manage fitness. Three seasons in a row now our first team looks knackered for the last 5-6 games of the season.
Inability to involve the squad. Included in the above is the lack of rotation of course We had a chance to give players like Bruno, Maguire, Rashford a rest around January before the heavy part of the season and we didn't, and we paid for it again. But also, he seems unable to slot in squad players more, and more importantly, to have them help make a difference. Getting more out of bit part players is also the manager's job, even those not deemed good enough like Donny or Mata. Learn how to utilize subs ffs.
Set pieces on both ends. Self explanatory.
Breaking down low blocks or have a plan B or C. A system the players can fall back on instead of it being on them always to produce a moment of magic to break opposition down.
Do or die games. Just been outclassed every time by competent tactics. When things start to go a bit south during the season and his job is in question the team produces a win, and has been able to play well against tough opponents on occasion, mostly during season fixtures, but elimination on the line, there is nothing extra, no particular adjustment or tactical plan you can point towards during these moments. And we've given up CL, Cups and now a final for it.
No trophies.
I think, regardless of which players leave or come in, we need to see improvement in all of these categories. If we don't rotate our main squad mid season and have players coming off the bench making a difference, if we look knackered come Feb-March and beyond, if we still can't score and concede double digit set piece goals, if we win no trophies it's time say goodbye to Ole.
You have one more seasono m9.
Inability to manage fitness. Three seasons in a row now our first team looks knackered for the last 5-6 games of the season.
Inability to involve the squad. Included in the above is the lack of rotation of course We had a chance to give players like Bruno, Maguire, Rashford a rest around January before the heavy part of the season and we didn't, and we paid for it again. But also, he seems unable to slot in squad players more, and more importantly, to have them help make a difference. Getting more out of bit part players is also the manager's job, even those not deemed good enough like Donny or Mata. Learn how to utilize subs ffs.
Set pieces on both ends. Self explanatory.
Breaking down low blocks or have a plan B or C. A system the players can fall back on instead of it being on them always to produce a moment of magic to break opposition down.
Do or die games. Just been outclassed every time by competent tactics. When things start to go a bit south during the season and his job is in question the team produces a win, and has been able to play well against tough opponents on occasion, mostly during season fixtures, but elimination on the line, there is nothing extra, no particular adjustment or tactical plan you can point towards during these moments. And we've given up CL, Cups and now a final for it.
No trophies.
I think, regardless of which players leave or come in, we need to see improvement in all of these categories. If we don't rotate our main squad mid season and have players coming off the bench making a difference, if we look knackered come Feb-March and beyond, if we still can't score and concede double digit set piece goals, if we win no trophies it's time say goodbye to Ole.
You have one more seasono m9.
By Doicare Go To PostIn a game of football you can be the better team and that's backed up by the individual match stats and expected goals. You can significantly outplay a team or you can narrowly outplay a team but either way you were still the better team.
Let's say a team wins 2-1 and the match stats were 60%-40% possession, 16 shots vs 8 shots with an xg of 1.6 vs 0.8. In that situation the team that won 2-1 deserved to win but with 'expected points' even tho the team that won 2-1 deserved to win 'expected points' doesn't award them 3 points it only gives them a fraction of those points in its mathematical model.
Manchester United had a lot of narrow wins this season but the vast majority were deserved because they were still the better team on the day. Teams that win big slightly more than shitting the bed in other games get more 'expected points' than teams who narrowly win. Hence why expected points are flawed.
There's very little detail on the actual 'flaws' in themathematical model here, and the chart of actual vs expected points seems to indicate to me that the model is actually pretty good for what it is.
But pls lad, do not treat stats as the be-all and end-all in football.
Wait....why am I sincerely responding here? Fucks sake.
Yeah pretty much agree with that.
I mean the set piece thing is absolutely not a personnel problem, it's a coaching one, as is the low block issue.
Pressure's also on him hugely next season because there'll be a lot of managers out of contract.
I mean the set piece thing is absolutely not a personnel problem, it's a coaching one, as is the low block issue.
Pressure's also on him hugely next season because there'll be a lot of managers out of contract.
By Willkiller Go To PostThere's very little detail on the actual 'flaws' in themathematical model here, and the chart of actual vs expected points seems to indicate to me that the model is actually pretty good for what it is.To sum it up:
But pls lad, do not treat stats as the be-all and end-all in football.
Wait….why am I sincerely responding here? Fucks sake.
In real life if a team deserves to win 2-1 they win and get 3 points.
In real life if a team deserves to win 4-0 they win and get 3 points.
With 'expected points' the team that wins 4-0 gets more expected points even tho the team that won 2-1 also deserved to win.
While I think he needs re-reinforcements, I think any manager worth their salt watching this team would have figured them out.
He needs players but also coaches too because no matter who he buys - the tactical problems will remain.
He's done well to get second - but I think he's peaked and tonight was a chance at silverware and he fucked it.
He needs players but also coaches too because no matter who he buys - the tactical problems will remain.
He's done well to get second - but I think he's peaked and tonight was a chance at silverware and he fucked it.
Loss is on Ole's tactics but also the players general play. We've had a shite end to the season since 4th was secured and can't be letting this roll onto next season.
Would be ideal if a lot of these lads didn't go to the Euros and just reset. Rashford hasn't been anywhere near his best for a while now.
Would be ideal if a lot of these lads didn't go to the Euros and just reset. Rashford hasn't been anywhere near his best for a while now.
That about covers my thoughts on the match and reaction in here.
edit: fucking dodgy gif links, no idea if its working or not
By Doicare Go To PostTo sum it up:
In real life if a team deserves to win 2-1 they win and get 3 points.
In real life if a team deserves to win 4-0 they win and get 3 points.
With 'expected points' the team that wins 4-0 gets more expected points even tho the team that won 2-1 also deserved to win.
But surely never more than 3 'xP'? I can see how a mathematical model would see a 4-0 lead as a safer bet to return 3 points opposed to a 2-1 lead, despite the team that has the goal advantage 'deserving' to win.
Surprised Man Utd are around 1 on xG btw considering the goal was a huge chance, and Rashford missed another one. Must have been absolutely nothing of any note besides those.
By LabouredPatriot Go To PostWhat's that supposed to be Hitch?The classic pele.gif
Boy how bout that United game eh? Lmfao
Going to my first Inter Miami game, and I'm torn on whether to appreciate or shit on the club for never coming to Miami.
Going to my first Inter Miami game, and I'm torn on whether to appreciate or shit on the club for never coming to Miami.
By Willkiller Go To PostBut surely never more than 3 'xP'? I can see how a mathematical model would see a 4-0 lead as a safer bet to return 3 points opposed to a 2-1 lead, despite the team that has the goal advantage 'deserving' to win.Sure you can never get more than 3 points but again using an example if a team deserves to win 20 games 2-1 and another team deserves to win 19 games 4-0 and to lose a game 0-1, the team that deserved to lose a game would have more 'expected points' than the team that deserved to win all 20 matches.
By Doicare Go To PostSure you can never get more than 3 points but again using an example if a team deserves to win 20 games 2-1 and another team deserves to win 19 games 4-0 and to lose a game 0-1, the team that deserved to lose a game would have more 'expected points' than the team that deserved to win all 20 matches.
Makes perfect sense to me for the reason I said. How many teams dominate the game but lose a goal from a set piece and drop points? Happens all the time. All the time. I therefore completely agree that the model should give more xP to a team that won 4-0 because the chance of those points being dropped relies on a team scoring 4 goals in reply.
What you seem to want is a system where if you're winning at full time you get 3 points, if you are drawing at full time you get one and if you lose you get nothing. We already have that, it's called....actual points.
By Willkiller Go To PostMakes perfect sense to me for the reason I said. How many teams dominate the game but lose a goal from a set piece and drop points? Happens all the time. All the time. I therefore completely agree that the model should give more xP to a team that won 4-0 because the chance of those points being dropped relies on a team scoring 4 goals in reply.Exactly, real life points are already perfect which is why 'expected points' is flawed and worthless.
What you seem to want is a system where if you're winning at full time you get 3 points, if you are drawing at full time you get one and if you lose you get nothing. We already have that, it's called….actual points.
Olé should be persisted with as he's the first manager we've had post Ferguson that the players haven't fallen out with or vice versa. Moyes was a disaster class of an appointment who was tactically and personally out of his depth. Telling Ferdinand to defend more like Jagielka being the lowlight of his tenure here.
LVG couldn't inspire his players and his tactics were dreadful. Players packed it in after 18 months. Mourinho was just poison and if we'd persisted with him Rashford would have left, Greenwood would be on loan or sold and we'd have an aging squad of has beens.
Solksjaer, for all his faults, has the players mostly in his corner. There have been multiple times when we've gone on a bad run of results and the squad would have given up under someone else. But he's cajoled good performances out if them when he needed it most. They clearly respond to his management style and want him to succeed. But his tactics and coaching just aren't up to it. Problem is, the players will only stick by you for so long. Lose another final or go on another bad run of form and they'll start wondering is if worth their time staying.
LVG couldn't inspire his players and his tactics were dreadful. Players packed it in after 18 months. Mourinho was just poison and if we'd persisted with him Rashford would have left, Greenwood would be on loan or sold and we'd have an aging squad of has beens.
Solksjaer, for all his faults, has the players mostly in his corner. There have been multiple times when we've gone on a bad run of results and the squad would have given up under someone else. But he's cajoled good performances out if them when he needed it most. They clearly respond to his management style and want him to succeed. But his tactics and coaching just aren't up to it. Problem is, the players will only stick by you for so long. Lose another final or go on another bad run of form and they'll start wondering is if worth their time staying.
He's undoubtedly approaching his ceiling. I'm just currently really struggling with who I'd want to replace him with. Apart from G_Pottz.
By Doicare Go To PostExactly, real life points is already perfect which is why 'expected points' is flawed and worthless.
No, it's flawed and worthless to you because you have shown for years you fail to see the nuance in football. To you everything is binary, a team had more shots and therefore deserved to win, a team had more possession and therefore deserved to win etc etc.
There is some (not loads) value in stats like expected points, and when the expected charts so closely to the actual it indicates the model is a good one and you can also extrapolate some meaning from the outliers. It's just data at the end of the day, just a representation of what really happened in a game. It's interesting but you should never hang your hat on stats alone...obviously.
Well, he's gonna get time either way. We've only just appointed a support structure around him (DOF, Tech Director, etc,) and pretty much everyone is Team Ole. Gives Amorim another season of experience before making the jump, right Martins?
We say this every summer but this transfer window is a huge one. We've improved year on year under Solksjaer and his signings have mostly worked out well. But it's clear that he wasn't backed last summer and didn't get his priority targets. If it's the same shit this summer then he's simply being set up to fail.
By Willkiller Go To PostNo, it's flawed and worthless to you because you have shown for years you fail to see the nuance in football. To you everything is binary, a team had more shots and therefore deserved to win, a team had more possession and therefore deserved to win etc etc.Nah i've got to disagree it's flawed because it applies an arbitrary points system that doesn't reflect the rules of the game. Of course there is nuance but the vast majority of the time the team that played better should win.
There is some (not loads) value in stats like expected points, and when the expected charts so closely to the actual it indicates the model is a good one and you can also extrapolate some meaning from the outliers. It's just data at the end of the day, just a representation of what really happened in a game. It's interesting but you should never hang your hat on stats alone…obviously.
By Doicare Go To PostNah i've got to disagree it's flawed because it applies an arbitrary points system that doesn't reflect the rules of the game. Of course there is nuance but the vast majority of the time the team that played better should win.
The disconnect we have here is in "played better" and "deserved to win". I don't think stats always reflect that. At all.
