By Fenderputty Go To PostAll support a public option, gun control and a whole bunch of shit not one single republican would sign up for without massive pushback from their constituents. They don’t even resemble republicans accept they agree Bernie’s plans aren’t realistic. (They’re not)Public option is one thing, but to assume gun control is a Dem/Rep debate is wildly off imo
"Not one single republican would sign off on (national level)" shows the disconnect too. They can stay on line on things. Dems have proven repeatedly that they can't even in the best of circumstances so it's apples to oranges. The Republicans don't readily display their internal bs or let it get to this level. They saw evangelical votes and took them. Gave that group what they asked for and kept it moving. For some reason, only Democrats will lose their shit and put all their business in the street if someone within their own party won't agree with them enough.
That's a big part of why this 50 state strategy is going to keep taking Ls too. All this focus on national level rhetoric has them playing this game backwards and endlessly reactive. Americans like their guns. Facilitating and enabling state level controls? Impossible when you got Dems happily primarying out their own. Erica Smith in NC is a perfect example.
By EldritchTrapStar Go To PostNone of their plans are realistic, so long as McConnell holds the keys. Acting as if being a moderate will get Republicans to reach across the aisles, is unrealistic. If Dems don't get a clean sweep, they will be as ineffective as a theoretical Sanders presidency would be. One of my biggest issues with Biden is that his senile ass thinks they will be able to cut a deal with that dude.The only thing worse than the expected is if Democrats keep scalping their own seats for moderates like that'll do anything except doom the party in the long run.
By DY_nasty Go To PostPublic option is one thing, but to assume gun control is a Dem/Rep debate is wildly off imo
"Not one single republican would sign off on (national level)" shows the disconnect too. They can stay on line on things. Dems have proven repeatedly that they can't even in the best of circumstances so it's apples to oranges. The Republicans don't readily display their internal bs or let it get to this level. They saw evangelical votes and took them. Gave that group what they asked for and kept it moving. For some reason, only Democrats will lose their shit and put all their business in the street if someone within their own party won't agree with them enough.
That's a big part of why this 50 state strategy is going to keep taking Ls too. All this focus on national level rhetoric has them playing this game backwards and endlessly reactive. Americans like their guns. Facilitating and enabling state level controls? Impossible when you got Dems happily primarying out their own. Erica Smith in NC is a perfect example.
The only thing worse than the expected is if Democrats keep scalping their own seats for moderates like that'll do anything except doom the party in the long run.
Speaking of, Erica Smith has a GOP super pac running ads "for" her
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article240062838.html
By Fenderputty Go To PostSpeaking of hot hot smoke
What about Article 2? It allows a president to do whatever they want. Nobody ever talks about it though.
Trump just labeled an entire sovereign nation's standing army a terrorist organization to kill one guy without consequence, gave a hefty block of all border control duties to private contracting, threatened state police across the country by holding their Federal funding hostage, had a foreign country investigate the family of a political opponent, and all sorts of other stuff... and ppl really still think there's shit you can't do as president
Am I getting that right
Am I getting that right
By Pac-12 Go To PostSpeaking of, Erica Smith has a GOP super pac running ads "for" herShe's getting screwed over by everyone 😂 it's a fucking shame
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article240062838.html
There's another pushing ads against her as well. I'm sure she's friends with Tulsi at this point.
By DY_nasty Go To PostTrump just labeled an entire sovereign nation's standing army a terrorist organization to kill one guy without consequence, gave a hefty block of all border control duties to private contracting, threatened state police across the country by holding their Federal funding hostage, had a foreign country investigate the family of a political opponent, and all sorts of other stuff… and ppl really still think there's shit you can't do as president
Am I getting that right
Why are you removing the senate from this? None of this was possible for Trump without protection from the senate.
You know he has a ton of latitude with military and Immigration too. Both areas he’s flexing and you’re bringing up.
He has not successfully removed Obamacare via executive order, he relied on congress for his tax cuts, he hasn’t built the wall either. God king trump isn’t near as free as he wants. Dude was a shitting on scotus judges recently.
There is no world where Bernie can make that EO
Gonna need a guy getting up there and actually invoking shit in the face of comfortably white bipartisanship to actually undo half of Trump's bullshit
OK, possible future scenario: Biden can't get the electoral votes. Courts are hugely right wing. Income inequality unprecedented. Younger voters are overwhelmingly liberal on a scale not seen in generations after getting repeatedly fucked, and are starting to gain power in the system.
What are the odds of an actual conscripted war within 10 years? Two birds with one stone: takes out a whole unwanted generation and quickstarts a nationwide authoritarian state. Have no idea how else they hold onto power
What are the odds of an actual conscripted war within 10 years? Two birds with one stone: takes out a whole unwanted generation and quickstarts a nationwide authoritarian state. Have no idea how else they hold onto power
By Fenderputty Go To PostWhy are you removing the senate from this? None of this was possible for Trump without protection from the senate.Protection?
You know he has a ton of latitude with military and Immigration too. Both areas he’s flexing and you’re bringing up.
He has not successfully removed Obamacare via executive order, he relied on congress for his tax cuts, he hasn’t built the wall either. God king trump isn’t near as free as he wants. Dude was a shitting on scotus judges recently.
There is no world where Bernie can make that EO
Fender pls. You know why the presidency has term limits but the Senate doesn't? It's so that the president gets to hold responsibility and blame whenever it's convenient. That answers everything you just mentioned. These senators are not holding the Ls in their districts that an Obamacare repeal would inevitably cause. They happily put Trump's name on the tax deal then everyone who felt threatened even slightly by it's ramifications wipes their hands. The physical wall is something the Democrats are focused on - but they've completely missed the absolutely massive shift in approach, spending, and - through executive order that they enabled by being hypocrites for another president that was about that throw em in the bushes life - allowed private contracting to finally establish itself in border control facility construction and upkeep. Not only on the Mexican border, but with huge shifts at airports as well. Pointing at a wall is worthless when the deterrent starts further away than ever before.
Trump has done damn near everything his party has wanted except be smooth about it 😂
But here come the Democrats telling us why shit can't be done when the only reason is because they're the Democrats. The bar has already been lowered too. You literally cannot be more abrasive about things than Trump. But hey if you can spend energy on alienating people who would love to vote for you then you have to do it I guess.
By DY_nasty Go To PostShe's getting screwed over by everyone 😂 it's a fucking shame
There's another pushing ads against her as well. I'm sure she's friends with Tulsi at this point.
I early-voted for her before I learned of this. My main thought independent of this was to show support for progressive ideas, so I'd still likely make the same choice.
By Not Go To PostOK, possible future scenario: Biden can't get the electoral votes. Courts are hugely right wing. Income inequality unprecedented. Younger voters are overwhelmingly liberal on a scale not seen in generations after getting repeatedly fucked, and are starting to gain power in the system.Unless aliens, absolutely zero
What are the odds of an actual conscripted war within 10 years? Two birds with one stone: takes out a whole unwanted generation and quickstarts a nationwide authoritarian state. Have no idea how else they hold onto power
I don't know why people think conscription or a draft is ever coming back. Nukes are a thing.
By Not Go To PostGonna have to rely on the courts alone then huhnever gonna happen. just hope that God lord bezos is benevolent in his rule
By DY_nasty Go To PostProtection?
Fender pls. You know why the presidency has term limits but the Senate doesn't? It's so that the president gets to hold responsibility and blame whenever it's convenient. That answers everything you just mentioned. These senators are not holding the Ls in their districts that an Obamacare repeal would inevitably cause. They happily put Trump's name on the tax deal then everyone who felt threatened even slightly by it's ramifications wipes their hands. The physical wall is something the Democrats are focused on - but they've completely missed the absolutely massive shift in approach, spending, and - through executive order that they enabled by being hypocrites for another president that was about that throw em in the bushes life - allowed private contracting to finally establish itself in border control facility construction and upkeep. Not only on the Mexican border, but with huge shifts at airports as well. Pointing at a wall is worthless when the deterrent starts further away than ever before.
Trump has done damn near everything his party has wanted except be smooth about it 😂
But here come the Democrats telling us why shit can't be done when the only reason is because they're the Democrats. The bar has already been lowered too. You literally cannot be more abrasive about things than Trump. But hey if you can spend energy on alienating people who would love to vote for you then you have to do it I guess.
Yes protection. He needs the senate for somethings, he needs protection for them on others.
Either way this argument was about what a president can do. He unquestionably has been hindered
Sometimes I think you just like to argue with me cause it's fun. Let me put it this way. Bernie want's to EO a bunch of black people out of prison.
Flaming hot smoke
I'm sure the Democrats would stand a better chance at getting what they wanted if they knew what they wanted.
All they know is how bad they don't want Bernie.
A bold strategy. Let's see how it plays out.
All they know is how bad they don't want Bernie.
A bold strategy. Let's see how it plays out.
By DY_nasty Go To Postnever gonna happen. just hope that God lord bezos is benevolent in his rulePrime membership ensures citizenship
By DY_nasty Go To PostI'm sure the Democrats would stand a better chance at getting what they wanted if they knew what they wanted.
.
This is true. You posted some about leadership needing to do something about a growing left wing. I agree with you, but I think the timing for a transition to a more liberal establishment isn't right yet. Still too many boomers and people afraid of the socialismz.
I hope AOC can sharpen up her game some and carry the left wing torch moving forward.
I don't want her to run for President, at least as soon as she's 35. She seems like she's way more effective in Congress and as a policy figure.
By Not Go To PostI don't want her to run for President, at least as soon as she's 35. She seems like she's way more effective in Congress and as a policy figure.
She would need to primary Schumer and serve in the senate before. That’s part of her carrying the torch tho. Her seat is safe, she’s like-able and attractive (sucks but this shit matters). She smart and not easily attacked. She understands social media and younger but aging voters. She speaks passionately. For better or worse, unless someone else steps up, she’s the one
Nate Silver now has Biden with a higher chance of getting the most delegates.
538 doesn't know shit. Might as well be a fucking palm reader
538 doesn't know shit. Might as well be a fucking palm reader
By Not Go To Post538 doesn't know shit. Might as well be a fucking palm reader
Lol
Oh this happened *adjusts model*
Oh now this happened *adjusts model*
Oh this thing happened that invalidated all of the rest of that *adjusts model*
Oh now this happened *adjusts model*
Oh this thing happened that invalidated all of the rest of that *adjusts model*
Silver's a dick, but his modeling is good. He at least was one of the few that even gave Trump a shot in 2016 in the general, when a bunch of others did not, right up through election day.
You’re correct, Nate doesn’t KNOW anything. He’s making educated guesses and approximating probabilities. His model will change as new variables come to light. That’s how it’s supposed to work.
I was just reading a piece on how they think models like Nates are killing voter enthusiasm. “We got this in the bag”
I was laughing in that context. Not that Nate is some al knowing person. His model is just a probability snap shot and 33% is still good odds lol
I was just reading a piece on how they think models like Nates are killing voter enthusiasm. “We got this in the bag”
I was laughing in that context. Not that Nate is some al knowing person. His model is just a probability snap shot and 33% is still good odds lol
By Not Go To PostOh this happened *adjusts model*Oh the Patriots scored a touchdown *adjust model to reflect Patriots increased chances of winning*
Oh now this happened *adjusts model*
Oh this thing happened that invalidated all of the rest of that *adjusts model*
Oh the Patriots scored a fieldgoal *adjusts model to reflect Patriots increased chances of winning*
Oh the Patriots scored a touchdown *adjusts model to reflect Patriots increased chances of winning*
Oh the Patriots scored a touchdown *adjusts model to reflect Patriots increased chances of winning*
Oh the Patriots scored a touchdown *adjusts model to reflect Patriots increased chances of winning*
Superbowl LI Winner: New England Patriots
Not: Score based predictive algorithms don't know shit!!!
I mean I guess a solar flare could kill us all tomorrow too and Nate's predictions would look pretty silly in retrospect
That's why I can't get behind stat watching. Everything is 100% after it happens, 0% before it does
Maybe I'm just mad at the volatility of the world, for being so hard to predict right now
That's why I can't get behind stat watching. Everything is 100% after it happens, 0% before it does
Maybe I'm just mad at the volatility of the world, for being so hard to predict right now
Is your expectations for a prediction to be always 100% accurate? Do you get disappointed when you roll two dice and don't get a 7?
By Not Go To PostThat's why I can't get behind stat watching. Everything is 100% after it happens, 0% before it doesIt was literally 65-35% chance what the hell lmao
That's.... not really how it works lol
I typically give polls shit because people rest on them as a stated fact or ignore the context of data. Elections being so populist driven now for example means that measures for gauging enthusiasm shouldn't really be placed on the same metrics used ages ago. Marketing, and campaigning, has changed dramatically.
Its fairly obvious that a lot of these major networks and outlets 1) haven't got with the times 2) love the data that smells like their own farts more than anything else 3) don't give two shits about context past the national level or anything past the screenshot of a state level one and 4) are too shook/dumb/bought off to call bullshit on anything
I typically give polls shit because people rest on them as a stated fact or ignore the context of data. Elections being so populist driven now for example means that measures for gauging enthusiasm shouldn't really be placed on the same metrics used ages ago. Marketing, and campaigning, has changed dramatically.
Its fairly obvious that a lot of these major networks and outlets 1) haven't got with the times 2) love the data that smells like their own farts more than anything else 3) don't give two shits about context past the national level or anything past the screenshot of a state level one and 4) are too shook/dumb/bought off to call bullshit on anything
By reilo Go To PostChris Mathews resigned https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/chris-matthews-longtime-msnbc-host-of-hardball-announces-his-resignation/2020/03/02/9c4b3dfc-5ce0-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.htmlbernie sanders already destroying american jobs
By reilo Go To PostIs your expectations for a prediction to be always 100% accurate? Do you get disappointed when you roll two dice and don't get a 7?
There is some merit to ignoring models (enthusiasm), but yeah not for the reasons he listed.
By reilo Go To PostIt was literally 65-35% chance what the hell lmao
Like I said ... 33% chance is still Fucking high.
By Not Go To PostDamn. First Flava Flav and now this
The bodies in Bernie's wake
By reilo Go To PostFirst Flava Flav now MathewsLike how
Beto backs Biden. This was their plan all along, wait until the day before and just destroy all of Sanders' momentum. Hope it doesn't work, but it probably will. People have no power in this country.
Bernie JUST had a heartattack. I can't believe people are just okay with electing people that look outright physically fragile for this job.
By reilo Go To PostBernie JUST had a heartattack. I can't believe people are just okay with electing people that look outright physically fragile for this job.Why do you think I want a Sanders/Gabbard ticket?
By reilo Go To PostBernie JUST had a heartattack. I can't believe people are just okay with electing people that look outright physically fragile for this job.Considering the other options pfffft