By reilo Go To PostLast election did not prove that polling was wrong, what the hell. Categorically false.Polling from 538 hasn't kept up with any election pushed strongly along by heavy populist strategies but that's a whole other topic tbh
Right now you guys are talking about people talking one way, then voting another
That's obvious
Basically on this date 4 years ago Clinton had a 12 point lead on Trump in the General election polls. You never know until they vote
By blackace Go To PostBasically on this date 4 years ago Clinton had a 12 point lead on Trump in the General election polls. You never know until they voteNo she didn't. Her lead peaked at 7pts on the aggregate and never crossed the 50% threshold and dwindled to within 3pts nationally a week before the election -- the exact margin of her popular vote lead at the end of it all.
I don't know what datasets any of you were reading but you are categorically false. The polling never said Clinton was a lock to win, she was always within the margins of losing.
This is fucking dumb.
By blackace Go To PostBasically on this date 4 years ago Clinton had a 12 point lead on Trump in the General election polls. You never know until they voteLmao what? You literally replied to this today:
I literally posted this today:
Applying our current polling-average methodology to 2016 polls, Clinton led national polls by an average of about 4.0 points four months before the 2016 election, and 3.8 points on Election Day itself.
By DY_nasty Go To PostFender the same dude talking about the world felt a Jedi scream shockwave when the twin towers fell
Fuck man I forgot that theory even existed .
On a serious note: I didn’t say the Bradley effect isn’t real, just that’s it’s not usually like an agreed upon effect. It’s hard to prove.
Multiple polls had her winning percentages from 70s to high 90s she was pretty close
ABC and CNN touted her 12 point lead but if it was really 7 she still should probably won.
It is pretty dumb to pretend the news wasn't giving her a victory lap based on the polls before she lost.
ABC and CNN touted her 12 point lead but if it was really 7 she still should probably won.
It is pretty dumb to pretend the news wasn't giving her a victory lap based on the polls before she lost.
By blackace Go To PostMultiple polls had her winning percentages from 70s to high 90s she was pretty closeThat's an analysis of the polls by someone and not the polls itself, man.
ABC and CNN touted her 12 point lead but if it was really 7 she still should probably won.
It is pretty dumb to pretend the news wasn't giving her a victory lap based on the polls before she lost.
And 7 point on average was her peak but not a long term one and definitely didn't sustain it by election night.
By reilo Go To PostThat's an analysis of the polls by someone and not the polls itself, man.😂
And 7 point on average was her peak but not a long term one and definitely didn't sustain it by election night.
By DY_nasty Go To PostPolling from 538 hasn't kept up with any election pushed strongly along by heavy populist strategies but that's a whole other topic tbh
Right now you guys are talking about people talking one way, then voting another
That's obvious
Sure but how do you quantify if it’s meaningful
By Perfect Blue Go To PostLmao what? You literally replied to this today:
There are multiple polls and response bias is literally a real thing
By DY_nasty Go To Post😂Good response, scientist
By reilo Go To PostThat's an analysis of the polls by someone and not the polls itself, man.so the analysis of the polls were wrong and not the poll answers themselves?
And 7 point on average was her peak but not a long term one and definitely didn't sustain it by election night.
By blackace Go To Postso the analysis of the polls were wrong and not the poll answers themselves?
We weight and aggregate polls to reduce these effects though.
By blackace Go To Postso the analysis of the polls were wrong and not the poll answers themselves?Yes. In fact, 538 got a ton of flack for giving Trump such a "high" (1/3) chance. But in the end the state-by-state results fell within the margin of error. People think Trump won in a blowout or something but nah, less than 100,000 votes decided four tipping states.
By reilo Go To PostGood response, scientistif you'd like to go in about how 538 and populist strats don't work that well here or abroad we can 🤷
this topic started with people talking one way and voting the other - the fact yal even defaulted to "but the polls" is more of alternate reality here showing itself
By reilo Go To PostYes. In fact, 538 got a ton of flack for giving Trump such a "high" (1/3) chance. But in the end the state-by-state results fell within the margin of error. People think Trump won in a blowout or something but nah, less than 100,000 votes decided four tipping states.Nobody here thinks (I hope) Trump won in a blowout. Just that polls are often flawed, especially in June, because humans are wishy-washy
By DY_nasty Go To Postif you'd like to go in about how 538 and populist strats don't work that well here or abroad we can 🤷
this topic started with people talking one way and voting the other - the fact yal even defaulted to "but the polls" is more of alternate reality here showing itself
I mean the topic started because someone acted like the bradley effect means polling is trash. So “polling isn’t trash because of this and Tbis” seem like a rather natural response. What reality you living in? Lol
By Fenderputty Go To PostI mean the topic started because someone acted like the bradley effect means polling is trash. So “polling isn’t trash because of this and Tbis” seem like a rather natural response. What reality you living in? LolPolling in 2020 is not anywhere close to the reliability people got used to in the early 2000s
And again, it started because blue is acting like white women had Hillary's back 😂
I mean yeah the polls can be wrong, but the only time incumbents lose is during a crisis and this is easily the biggest crisis point of the last 70 years
By Not Go To PostWhat was Carter's? Oil price tanking?That and the Iran hostage crisis
Money is king here. Ethics and morals take a back seat to it always. It's why private industries definitely shouldn't exist for shit like healthcare nor be assumed to telling the truth about any of it. If your main concern is stock and investors you are not in the business of being factual or providing a service, you're in the business of profit and doing a bare minimum. And for most companies and industries, now more than ever, it's short term gains too, couldn't give a fuck if a thing folds, ride out on golden parachutes boys. In the states this has included closing hospitals and ERs in rural communities because "it's not profitable." When something like Covid hits or some kind of emergency? Closest hospital is 30 min away if you're lucky.
Good news from Canada. FUCK UBER
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stefanovich-supreme-court-uber-class-action-decision-1.5626853
Canada's highest court opened the door to a proposed $400-million class-action lawsuit against Uber today after it sided with a driver in a case over whether workers can settle disputes with the ride-hailing company through a costly, foreign arbitration process or through Ontario courts.
In an eight-to-one decision, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that drivers can have labour issues resolved through Ontario courts, opening up the possibility of Uber drivers being seen as employees within the meaning of Ontario's Employment Standards Act.
Uber had challenged an Ontario Court of Appeal decision that found the company's contract clause, which relies on a costly arbitration process in the Netherlands to settle disputes, was "unconscionable" and "unenforceable."
…
Uber had won a stay of the proposed class action before Ontario Superior Court because of a clause in the contract that requires all disputes between drivers and the company to go through a mediation process in the Netherlands — at a personal cost of $14,500 US for drivers.
"Practically no one will do that," Samfiru said.
Heller, who had been licensed to use the Uber Driver App since February 2016 in Toronto, earned between $20,800 and $31,200 per year before taxes and expenses.
In November 2018, Ontario's highest court ruled Uber's clause amounts to illegally outsourcing an employment standard.
Uber maintained that arbitration, not the courts, is the right forum for deciding the validity of an arbitration agreement.
The proposed class-action lawsuit, which has not yet been certified, aims to provide a minimum wage, vacation pay and other protections under Ontario's Employment Standards Act to anyone who works for Uber or has worked for the company in Ontario since 2012.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stefanovich-supreme-court-uber-class-action-decision-1.5626853
By Perfect Blue Go To PostWhat a threadThis second tweet includes at least one wrong fact though, If Canada was a state it would rank in the bottom 10 in testing per capita and 19th in deaths per capita.
Chief of Police got hit today in a Nick Fury esque attempt by a cartel. He survived but 2 security guards and 1 bystander died and at least 11 for hire guns were arrested.
Nothing to see here otherwise.
Nothing to see here otherwise.
I saw that earlier today, but didn't post it since NY Times is being more strict on the paywall. Every article I click on recently, so I can get beyond the headline, is blocked. Can't post what I can't read.
By Not Go To PostHave you tried pressing the escape key before the page fully loads
Miracles. Don't get offended if I start a religion in your name.
For you, Pac:
American intelligence officials have concluded that a Russian military intelligence unit secretly offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants for killing coalition forces in Afghanistan — including targeting American troops — amid the peace talks to end the long-running war there, according to officials briefed on the matter.
The United States concluded months ago that the Russian unit, which has been linked to assassination attempts and other covert operations in Europe intended to destabilize the West or take revenge on turncoats, had covertly offered rewards for successful attacks last year.
Islamist militants, or armed criminal elements closely associated with them, are believed to have collected some bounty money, the officials said. Twenty Americans were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2019, but it was not clear which killings were under suspicion.
The intelligence finding was briefed to President Trump, and the White House’s National Security Council discussed the problem at an interagency meeting in late March, the officials said. Officials developed a menu of potential options — starting with making a diplomatic complaint to Moscow and a demand that it stop, along with an escalating series of sanctions and other possible responses, but the White House has yet to authorize any step, the officials said.
And there you have it, folks. DY is cool with those who are cool with those who are trying to bust a cap in his ass.
Close the 2020 thread, we'll be back with you in 2021 if there's a 2021 to get back to.
Close the 2020 thread, we'll be back with you in 2021 if there's a 2021 to get back to.