Ira Winderman @IraHeatBeat 11m11 minutes ago
Heat to start Zoran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Henry Walker, Michael Beasley, James Ennis. I was right!
http://i.imgur.com/LtfG8ap.gif">
By unknown Go To Post Jason Lieser ✔ @PBPjasonlieserFollow#Heat will start Tyler Johnson, Zoran Dragic, James Ennis, Henry Walker & Michael Beasley at #Sixers tonight.
*Chuckle* Hinkie is miles ahead of you in that department, Riley.
dawgs we are tanking so hard that we are holding out Furkan Aldemir.
and I'm still not sure if that is a real person or not.
By Vahagn Go To PostI told you there are 22 teams that are off by more than 1 win or loss from the projected win total. Which means I wasn't measuring it exactly, I was giving the model the benefit of a doubt. A Margin of error.
Youre saying a model that has a large variance from reality should be adjusted, but 22 teams out of 30 isn't large enough for you. We'll check tomorrow after all the games have been played, and my hunch is that fewer than 20% will be spot on, and about another 5-10 will have a variance of at least 3 games.
This isnt 1 or 2 territory.
Even 3 wins isn't a lot. You are speaking blind, here. You don't get to make up a margin of error. It's not 1 because you feel like 1 is good enough. That's not how math works.
By what terms do you declare the model has large variance? You're talking out your ass right now. You seem to believe the model has to project most teams accurately...but that's not reality. Any model that can be as accurate as you seem to demand would require an insane amount of currently unquantifiable variables. Noise will always have an affect. Besides, this isn't a predictive model. It's literally just spitting out data from thousands of events. We know that if you take a team with X point diffferential, they will equate to a Y% win team if you play enough games. We know because we've already done the math. There will always be randomness that affects an individual result in an 82 game season. It is mathematically unavoidable, which is why we have a root sqaure-mean error.
I looked at all the teams just because and I saw nothing out of the ordinary. I think I came across 3 teams that would seem like outliers, but again 1-2 teams on average so getting 3 is normal. Fewer than 20% beng spot on is very fucking normal.
You don't understand how any of this works so why are you commenting on it?
your Vegas example is a problem. Unless we're discussing roulette (you didn't specify the game) there are a variety of games where skill level comes into play. Are you better than everyone else at the poker table, can you count cards in blackjack and stay disciplined to your betting ratios.
I'm telling you that Bill won money because of X. (Skill, tactics, luck) and you're telling me you don't need to know whether he's actually good or not to determine it being lucky. ANYTHING that falls outside of the average is, and can only be, luck.
i.e - I'm telling you to understand the substance of the game you're talking about. Why teams do better than expected or worse than expected. you're Telling me it's unnecessary once you have a formula.
Basically you're being lazy. Chalk it up to luck and move on.
Sorry, I forgot to add "blackjack" in the Vegas part. Since counting cards is considered cheating and I limited bets to only $5, it fits fine. We know exactly how much you should lose this way over time if you play perfectly. There's no way around the math.
Something falling outside the average isn't luck. Something falling outside the confidence intervals is luck (or unlucky).
Why teams do significantly better than their Expected W/L would be based on PD is randomness. Did they get to play the Spurs resting guys? Did they get lucky in close games (We know these are, in fact, equavalent to coin flips regardless of quality of opponent)? Did they catch a player on suspension or injury? Every year a team or two will get lucky in this respect. Others will get unlucky.
Injuries are not the only lucky/unlucky thing in sports.
I don't know why this has to be so complicated. The Rockets won 55/56 games. Their point differential says they should have won 49/50 games. They've been a bit lucky this year to get those added wins. Other teams were unlucky. Think of it as adjusted wins.
Are you trying to argue that point differential isn't a better indicator of team prowess than wins?
By knux-future Go To Postdawgs we are tanking so hard that we are holding out Furkan Aldemir.
and I'm still not sure if that is a real person or not.
dam wtf, hinkie aint fucking around.
By knux-future Go To Postdawgs we are tanking so hard that we are holding out Furkan Aldemir.
and I'm still not sure if that is a real person or not.
I assume he's this guy, from a knights tale
http://houseofgeekery.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/adhemar.jpg">
By unknown Go To Post Jason Lieser ✔ @PBPjasonlieserFollow#Heat will start Tyler Johnson, Zoran Dragic, James Ennis, Henry Walker & Michael Beasley at #Sixers tonight.
Our backups are still going to be better. We are gonna win this shit.
By vire Go To PostOur backups are still going to be better. We are gonna win this shit.
Only 8 players for us tonight lol
By Wahoos007 Go To Post Conflicted as all fuck. I kinda want the Spurs to get #2, but I also want the Pelicans to get the 8th seed. I have no confidence in the Wolves doh.
yeah same. shame it has to be that way. Unless Rockets lose and Clippers can jump in 2 but that's not going to happen.
By knux-future Go To Postdawgs we are tanking so hard that we are holding out Furkan Aldemir.
and I'm still not sure if that is a real person or not.
First time I heard Dell Curry say his name I thought dude was casting a spell
By DY_nasty Go To PostFirst time I heard Dell Curry say his name I thought dude was casting a spell
fuckin lol
By knux-future Go To Post wtf am I doing with my life?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtkST5-ZFHw&feature=youtu.be&t=31s
By knux-future Go To Postdawgs we are tanking so hard that we are holding out Furkan Aldemir.
and I'm still not sure if that is a real person or not.
He sounds like a Harry Potter villain.
By Wahoos007 Go To Post Playoff starts today. One and done with Spurs vs. Pelicans...well...it's more important to the Pels.
If we're going by that, the Pacers started the playoffs like two weeks ago.
By livefromkyoto Go To PostIf we're going by that, the Pacers started the playoffs like two weeks ago.
True dat.
By DY_nasty Go To Post don't think i've ever seen biyombo getting handled like this
Don't watch many Hornets games?
By giririsss Go To PostDon't watch many Hornets games?
http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Maurice-Moss-Eating-Popcorn-The-IT-Crowd.gif">
By giririsss Go To PostDon't watch many Hornets games?
Oooooooooooooh
By creepingfear Go To Post Welp "Dan Bernstein @dan_bernstein 2m2 minutes agoHearing Noah's issue is indeed his bad knee. Told it's bone-on-bone, unlikely to improve markedly, long-term concern. Not good. #Bulls"
that just sprang up out of nowhere huh
or might it have come from going hard as fuck for no reason when they should have been tanking during the rose injury years
but dont mind me, im just over here sippin tea
By creepingfear Go To Post Welp "Dan Bernstein @dan_bernstein 2m2 minutes agoHearing Noah's issue is indeed his bad knee. Told it's bone-on-bone, unlikely to improve markedly, long-term concern. Not good. #Bulls"
That sucks :/