2015 NBA April |OT| CP3, Left Hand Red

Good to hear, Obi. 

In other news: according to Marc Stein: 

Lance Stephenson? Lowest 3-point percentage EVER with at least 100 attempts at .171. Previous low: Micheal Ray Richardson (.188) in 1981-82

DY's boys setting records out there. 

By obijkenobi Go To Post Made it to san antonio brehs

http://static.slaent.com.s3.amazonaws.com/images/uploads/obijkenobi/1420597330.419123_thumbnail_240x240_90_0_0_0_.jpeg">

Can't write up the Playoff OT until these games are over, expect the thread before Saturday.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25150109/nba-playoff-scenarios-for-wednesday-april-15-lets-settle-this">CBS has a article about tonight's games with playoff implications

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/BLOODBATH041515.jpg">

By Moris Go To Post Can't write up the Playoff OT until these games are over, expect the thread before Saturday.

That's fine, I'm not ready to leave the regular season before the grand finale tonight.

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post I've seen enough from Cho to give him the boot personally

Cho isn't the one telling Marvin Williams to guard Blake Griffin breh

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post I've seen enough from Cho to give him the boot personally

There's a reason Paul Allen fired him 6 months into the job. He came to PA with a plan to "tank tank tank" and, well, he got exactly that in Charlotte and the roster is a mess. Except last year when they randomly decided to win in a loaded draft class by signing Al Jeff?

By reilo Go To Post RT @tomhaberstroh: Love this: No Hawks player has scored over 30 pts in a game this season. Per Elias, that's never happened for 50+ win team. They've won 60.

millsapp has the only 30 point scoring game this season for them

and haberstroh stealing from reddit lmao

By reilo Go To Post

There's a reason Paul Allen fired him 6 months into the job. He came to PA with a plan to "tank tank tank" and, well, he got exactly that in Charlotte and the roster is a mess. Except last year when they randomly decided to win in a loaded draft class by signing Al Jeff?

The roster should at least be a playoff team right now - that's the thing. We've kept great cap flexibility and consistently made damned good trades since he's been here. Only thing wrong with the guy is that he hasn't fired Clifford yet. The guy is a jackass. We're one of the league leaders in pull-up mid-range shots and he's complaining about 3pt shooting. We aren't even taking them lol

maybe if he didn't let gary neal live his life long dream of being steve francis we could've got some of that. PJ can shoot too - the guy just got the most inconsistent minutes and role out of any rookie in his entire class. and noah? lol he can shoot too. troy? we traded for him and he got no minutes. mo? play him at SG and tell him to take Gary Neals playbook (shooting plummetted something fierce)

"i can't find a lineup for lance"

"marvin williams is a our floor spacer" (proceeds to let marvin play 40 minutes and take 1 three)

"kemba is our leader" (kemba arguably not even as good as cody zeller)

too much is on this coach. ffs we have two inbound plays

I don't get the rockets are luck narrative. They're much better defensively this year. The just can get stops this year unlike last year. 

The Rockets have to care of business against the Jazz and then it's either Dallas and the 18th pick or Portland and 14th. I'd rather get to the 2 seed because the draft is a crapshoot after like 6.

By KingGondo Go To Post

Good to hear, Obi. 

In other news: according to Marc Stein: 

DY's boys setting records out there. 

Just the man I wanted to see.  When I was driving through Oklahoma last night, I saw a road sign that simoly said "Do not drive into smoke"

What is the 411 on this

Thought the Hornets had a good offseason, don't think many predicted the Lance signing to turn out like it did.

Had them 6th in the East.

By Colonel Nasty Go To Post

I don't get the rockets are luck narrative. They're much better defensively this year. The just can get stops this year unlike last year.

.

By reilo Go To Post

There's a reason Paul Allen fired him 6 months into the job. He came to PA with a plan to "tank tank tank" and, well, he got exactly that in Charlotte and the roster is a mess. Except last year when they randomly decided to win in a loaded draft class by signing Al Jeff?

I dunno, they looked like an up-and-comer last season.   Not entirely sure what happened this year to derail that. 

The Rockets' actual win total is 6 wins higher than the predicted win total based on point differential. This usually only happens when you're ridiculously, historically clutch or have a lot of close game luck. Considering that I'm not sure clutch exists and I'm especially not sure about Harden being ridiculously clutch, I would say that difference is due to close game luck.

Obviously, the Rockets have had terrible luck in terms of injuries and are better than their expected win total when healthy, but they're not going into the playoffs healthy either.

By livefromkyoto Go To Post

I dunno, they looked like an up-and-comer last season.   Not entirely sure what happened this year to derail that. 

The roster isn't even all that of a mess compared to other playoff teams and .500 teams in the West. Its entirely on the coach. If the team can't shoot (which is BS, we don't even shoot corner 3s), then why don't we drive and at least draw some fouls or force the defense to move in other was? *gasp* We're bottom 5 in drives per game behind Utah.

I mean, yeah, Al being completely unable to move is one thing (you look at where his shots are coming from and you'll be able to see right away that he's a cinderblock this year) but the coach not limiting him or changing his approach is a sign that the coach is an idiot. You don't answer Al's limitations by having two PGs play 30mpg with 30+ usage rates shooting 40% on a good night.

By chandlerparsons Go To Post

It's a fluke how? Because you predicted we wouldn't make the playoffs, and ended up 2nd in the Southwest? Because in a season where Dwight has missed 41 games, TJones 49 games, Beverley 25 and lost another starter in Parsons during the offseason, doing better than last season doesn't seem synonomous with 'luck'.

Randomness in 82 games, lol. You'd think this was the NFL or AFL or something. 

It's a fluke because, as I said, their SRS and Point differential are worse than last year.  they have a 49 expected win (right now), not 55.  6 games is pretty big.

Also, 82 games is still pretty small and is subject to massive randomness. A team is expected to go 50% in close games, even good ones.  If you go, say, 13-5 in a season in close games, it's just random luck.  Minnesota, for example, suffered the same but opposite fate last season.  It's part of the game, it happens.  You might randomly play against a team missing its star(s) for injury or suspension reasons.  And on and on it goes.  There's still a lot of luck involved.  I'm not trying to knock Houston, it happens to all teams in some way over the years.  

Do you think the Rockets are better this season because of the win total alone?  Because they've won games by a smaller margin this year.  Their SRS, and basically all overall team metrics, are down this season.  That suggests they are a worse team than last season's incarnation.  Win total isn't everything.  

By Smokey Go To Post

we missed like half of our team for various reasons this year and still surpassed last years win total . That all adds up to luck?

And rocket fans do what exactly? There's like 5-7 of us on this board. Hardly anybody says anything unless rbk is trolling and everybody bites. Unless you're talking about Portland which in that case fuk Portland. 

The "luck" part has nothing to do with injuries.  It has to do with your team having a point differential of a 50 win team and not a 55 win team.  In basketball terms, that is the definition of luck.  If you win significantly more games than your point differential, you are lucky.  If you win less, you're unlucky.  If it was just 1 or 2 wins, it would be just noise.  But it's not, it's a 6 game disparity.  

My fan comment was in general, not just relegated to this board.  

By Vahagn Go To Post

Mamba I agree with everything but randomness and luck are lame statements used when discussing statistics. Basically amounts to "we were wrong. Can't tell you why. Here's a word that absolves us of our mistake" it's nonsense. 

Its not about playing the season 10,000 times in some computer simulator, it's about correctly assessing the season as is. 

That being said, you're spot on about everything else. 

Everything the rockets do in the Morey era can be summed up as "Gimmicky gimmicky gimmicky gimmickness" 

their bullshit poison pill contracts, their million and one trades, their offensive system. Everything is about being clever and exploiting gimmicks in every aspect of the business they can. 

If it takes 5 more 1st round exits to get the guy fired, that's what I'll root for. 

Again, I'm not saying something like "Well, with all these injuries, they were lucky to win X games."  Not at all.  I'm saying their point differential and any other team measure indicates they would normally win far fewer games than they did.  Somewhere, they got a bit lucky.  

If you flip a coin 100 times and end up with 70 heads and 30 tails, I'd say heads was pretty lucky.  Randomness dictates such events must happen, but they're uncommon.  And Uncommon = lucky.

By obijkenobi Go To Post

Just the man I wanted to see.  When I was driving through Oklahoma last night, I saw a road sign that simoly said "Do not drive into smoke"

What is the 411 on this

I assume that's in case of wildfires. 

By IWMTB19 Go To Post

The Rockets' actual win total is 6 wins higher than the predicted win total based on point differential. This usually only happens when you're ridiculously, historically clutch or have a lot of close game luck. Considering that I'm not sure clutch exists and I'm especially not sure about Harden being ridiculously clutch, I would say that difference is due to close game luck.

Obviously, the Rockets have had terrible luck in terms of injuries and are better than their expected win total when healthy, but they're not going into the playoffs healthy either.

Exactly this.

By Moris Go To Post https://youtu.be/WnmaN6S9B_8" target="_blank">It...it's...beautiful.

http://stollentroll.ch/images/smilies/emot-golfclap.gif">

By Moris Go To Post https://youtu.be/WnmaN6S9B_8" target="_blank">It...it's...beautiful.

My day can only get worse

I came here to post something and then I saw Moris's post. Without clicking I automatically thought "Please please PLEASE don't let it be what I think it is. Just give me this one, God. Actually I want the Knicks to have the #1 pick, but I could settle for #2 if you just not let it be what I think it is..."

God, you better fucking let the Knicks have the #1 pick now.

By DY_nasty Go To Post

Cho isn't the one telling Marvin Williams to guard Blake Griffin breh

Two things I hated:

1. Zeller over Noel
2. Kemba extension

I mean sure, you still have cap room, but there are/were just too many interesting PG's that were going to be available to throw cash at Kemba. It's not just about money, but its about playing time and shots going to guys with a better ceiling.

By 0vercast Go To Post It's actually hilarious that a few people cannot accept the fact that the Rockets won 55 games with injuries throughout the year. Nobody gives a damn about your luck stats, it's impressive. 

literally doesn't understand the argument at all.  It has nothing to do with injuries.

I've argued Harden for co-MVP.  You'd think that would be enough.  Rocket fans can be so sensitive.

The rockets won more games than this super stat I put all my faith in tells me they should have. Anything else is Luck. 

Any two teams playing basketball is equivalent to a 50/50 coin flip. If one team wins 70% of their games - that's just randomness. 

Pick a year, go through SRS ratings and expected win totals, and see how many of them exceed or don't reach those win totals. Not by a lot, just by anything at all. 

Heck, pick 10 years. Then do it. Unless you're hitting like 80-90% matches, you're wasting your time. 

By Vahagn Go To Post

The rockets won more games than this super stat I put all my faith in tells me they should have. Anything else is Luck. 

Any two teams playing basketball is equivalent to a 50/50 coin flip. If one team wins 70% of their games - that's just randomness. 

Pick a year, go through SRS ratings and expected win totals, and see how many of them exceed or don't reach those win totals. Not by a lot, just by anything at all. 

Heck, pick 10 years. Then do it. Unless you're hitting like 80-90% matches, you're wasting your time. 

Congrats on once again demonstrating you don't understand what you're talking about.

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post

Two things I hated:

1. Zeller over Noel
2. Kemba extension

I mean sure, you still have cap room, but there are/were just too many interesting PG's that were going to be available to throw cash at Kemba. It's not just about money, but its about playing time and shots going to guys with a better ceiling.

Noel can't even walk yet.

By DY_nasty Go To Post

Noel can't even walk yet.

but zeller doesn't even want to run breh

By Mamba Go To Post

Congrats on once again demonstrating you don't understand what you're talking about.

A) wildly miss on projected win totals

B) blame luck instead of your methadology 

C) keep insisting SRS is a phenomenal predictor of accuracy, don't show proof. 

Yea, that's the ticket. 

By Vahagn Go To Post

The rockets won more games than this super stat I put all my faith in tells me they should have. Anything else is Luck. 

Any two teams playing basketball is equivalent to a 50/50 coin flip. If one team wins 70% of their games - that's just randomness. 

Pick a year, go through SRS ratings and expected win totals, and see how many of them exceed or don't reach those win totals. Not by a lot, just by anything at all. 

Heck, pick 10 years. Then do it. Unless you're hitting like 80-90% matches, you're wasting your time. 

I understand your point that difference from SRS isn't necessarily luck, but it historically hasn't been *predictive.*  That is (at least, to the best of my knowledge), factoring in that a team won a lot of close games over an n-game stretch doesn't seem to add much, if any, predictive power over traditional SRS when trying to predict how many of the next n games the team will win, whereas SRS does provide considerably predictive power over just assuming every team will go .500 (assuming things have been suitably regressed).  If you like, we can call such differences "nonrepeatable skills" instead of "luck."  The point is that whatever the reason the Rockets won a lot of close games, historically we shouldn't expect them to win a lot of close games going forward based on that.  That's the relevant part, what you're arguing about is just semantics.

Also, while I'm sure you understand this, none of the above implies that SRS explains *all* variability in win totals.  So your proposed experiment is kind of meaningless.  At some point, I'm going to resume work on something I was programming to more rigorously measure this and allow people to design their own models, weighing what they considered important, so we could compare how people did in an objective setting... but probably not for a while.

Maybe our offense just isn't as good as last season, which leads to the lower point differential?

Am I just being too damn sensitive?

By psychintellect Go To Post

but zeller doesn't even want to run breh

Why run when your starting point guard has shown zero ability to pass on the fastbreak?

I do agree with Faze on the Kemba extension though.

Per my count, so far 22 teams have won or lost more than 1 game over and above the Projected wins prediction. That number may shrink tonight or it may go up. Lots of teams have had a +/- differential of 3 of more. 

And that's based on data leading up to and from the penultimate night of the regular season. I imagine the end of season projected wins from data 40 games ago included variances that were far higher because of smaller sample size issues.

Is any case, my point is, if you're going to put all your faith on the predictive capabilities of a stat, don't claim luck when you're wrong. These aren't coin flips. Which we know will land in 50/50 splits given a large enough sample size. 

If a team outperforms your projection, own up and try to assess why. Or ignore the topic. Calling it luck is lazy. 

By Vahagn Go To Post

A) wildly miss on projected win totals

B) blame luck instead of your methadology 

C) keep insisting SRS is a phenomenal predictor of accuracy, don't show proof. 

Yea, that's the ticket. 

First off, I used SRS to argue they're not as good as last year, not that they won more games than they should have. The "luck" thing has to do with expected wins based on point differential, not SRS.

The definition of a lucky team in the NBA (or any sport) is one that wins more games than expected.  Expected win/loss formula has been known for a long time.  If you win significantly more, you're lucky.  If you win significantly less, you're unlucky.  The formula is based on thousands and thousands of games, it's pretty much set in stone.

It's like going to Vegas, playing $5 a hand for 100 hands, and coming up positive $100.  You'd call that person lucky even if they played every hand perfectly.  

By RBK Go To Post

Maybe our offense just isn't as good as last season, which leads to the lower point differential?

Am I just being too damn sensitive?

It isn't.  Shouldn't you be a worse team as a result?  (Of course, some of that was offset by better defense).

What your offense or defense does independent of the other is irrelevant.  If you win by 5 points a game you are expected to win X games.  If you win by 3 points a game, you are expected to win Y.  That's all there is to it.

Another part of management that I think is underrated is just knowing when to fucking let go. The Wizards have had projects that we damn well knew weren't going to work out, but we let them play through their contracts. Why? I get the argument of, ok, lets see if he improves, but it's the laziest thing to always just wait for a guy to just walk out of his contract. That time is valuable. Those minutes can go to another guy you want to take a crack it in your system.

For example Kevin Seraphin almost certainly won't be back. For chunks of the season he was getting almost all of the backup C minutes. What in the fuck is the point? Waive him. See if you can package him in a deal. Bring in a couple of interesting D-League prospects and see if you can luck into the bench tiered version of Whiteside. 

By psychintellect Go To Post if spo plays wade or dragic tonight i swear......

The fuckery tonight will be legendary, 

Furkan Aldemir clear out isos vs Chris Anderson leading the break yall

By Moris Go To Post

Can't write up the Playoff OT until these games are over, expect the thread before Saturday.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25150109/nba-playoff-scenarios-for-wednesday-april-15-lets-settle-this" target="_blank">CBS has a article about tonight's games with playoff implications

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/BLOODBATH041515.jpg">

I think I'd actually prefer the scenario where the Spurs and Grizzlies lose and the Rockets win, as it would be the only scenario where the Clippers could avoid the Warriors and Spurs until the WCF, barring either of those 2 teams getting upset in the first round.  The crazy thing is that the Spurs and Grizzlies games are also win-and-in games for the Pelicans and Pacers, respectively.  This is probably the craziest last day of the season in recent memory.

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post

Another part of management that I think is underrated is just knowing when to fucking let go. The Wizards have had projects that we damn well knew weren't going to work out, but we let them play through their contracts. Why? I get the argument of, ok, lets see if he improves, but it's the laziest thing to always just wait for a guy to just walk out of his contract. That time is valuable. Those minutes can go to another guy you want to take a crack it in your system.

For example Kevin Seraphin almost certainly won't be back. For chunks of the season he was getting almost all of the backup C minutes. What in the fuck is the point? Waive him. See if you can package him in a deal. Bring in a couple of interesting D-League prospects and see if you can luck into the bench tiered version of Whiteside. 

No one likes to admit they were wrong. Its like this in most sports.  You never will hear a guy outright say "yeah that dude was dogshit so we cut his ass" its always "well we felt like <insert scrub here> needed a new enviroment and it was time to move on yall".  Like even when Hinkie traded MCW, he never outright said he sucked or that he didn't fit his "system" but rather "we got an opprutunity that we had to take". I imagine this is due to agents and not wanting to piss off other players watching (because other players will cape for garbage tier dudes sometimes).