By linsivvi Go To PostWhy do you not like the moves he made though? You know they have to sign somebody. These are all pieces that are easily moveable. If shit hits the fan Mitch and do a lot of trades by mid season.
What LA is now is very close to our best case scenario going into free agency honestly. If we can flip JLin into Justin Anderson I'll be happy with this offseason.
I wanted our pick, but you can't be tanking when you have 3-5 young guys who have a chance to be really good, you have to start fostering a winning tradition. I know that, it's just......it's like a kid asking to have ice cream for dinner, I know why Mitch didn't go for it but I'm still a little pouty about it.
By psychintellect Go To PostWhat if Randle and Russell are both garbage though?could well be possible,
but the bigger question is have you seen the weakness portion of Justise Winslow's DX video yet?
By DY_nasty Go To Postwe could've stayed with felton, wallace, jackson
that would've been cool
results have been the same and still haven't developed any real talent
By psychintellect Go To PostWhat if Randle and Russell are both garbage though?
The odds of a top guy being trash are usually around 50%... I think it has to be higher than that for Randle given his injury history. So there's probably like a 30% chance of both guys being garbage assuming that Russell developing is independent of Randle developing (which isn't that realistic but is easier to model than otherwise)?
By K@do Go To Postcould well be possible,Did you see Justise drawing fouls like Wade/Harden in Summer league?
but the bigger question is have you seen the weakness portion of Justise Winslow's DX video yet?
Did you see Justise drawing fouls like Wade/Harden in Summer league?
yeah i did, but its summer league but that definitely answers my question .lol
yeah i did, but its summer league but that definitely answers my question .lol
By IWMTB19 Go To PostThe odds of a top guy being trash are usually around 50%... I think it has to be higher than that for Randle given his injury history. So there's probably like a 30% chance of both guys being garbage assuming that Russell developing is independent of Randle developing (which isn't that realistic but is easier to model than otherwise)?I get where you're going with this, but if you want to penalize beyond 50% for an injury history when the 50% already includes people with an injury history, you have to give better odds to players without. Either way I get closer to 25%.
By IWMTB19 Go To PostThe odds of a top guy being trash are usually around 50%... I think it has to be higher than that for Randle given his injury history. So there's probably like a 30% chance of both guys being garbage assuming that Russell developing is independent of Randle developing (which isn't that realistic but is easier to model than otherwise)?
Top 5 picks historically 2 outta 3 bust or 3 outta 2 ?
nate duncan brought up the stat that dangelo shot better on contested threes than on open ones and that his average free throw % in college might be cause to temper expectations on his shooting
By Sharp Go To PostMeh, when was the last time all-out tanking actually helped in the long run?this hurts me in multiple ways.
the inevitability of it all
By Sharp Go To PostI get where you're going with this, but if you want to penalize beyond 50% for an injury history when the 50% already includes people with an injury history, you have to give better odds to players without. Either way I get closer to 25%.
Hmm? If we assume beforehand that a random top 7 pick has a 50% chance of busting and then give an extra 10% possibility of busting to a guy who misses his entire rookie season due to injury (giving higher probability due to the possibility of revealed injury-proneness), then that would work out fine...
But yeah, it could be closer to 25% (except I don't like Randle at all).
By K@do Go To PostDid you see Justise drawing fouls like Wade/Harden in Summer league?Nate Silver approved breh
yeah i did, but its summer league but that definitely answers my question .lol
By IWMTB19 Go To PostHmm? If we assume beforehand that a random top 7 pick has a 50% chance of busting and then give an extra 10% possibility of busting to a guy who misses his entire rookie season due to injury (giving higher probability due to the possibility of revealed injury-proneness), then that would work out fine...I guess your point here is that we don't know if Russell is injury-prone yet? Otherwise, if he's not injury-prone he should take a corresponding 10%ish drop in bust probability according to this model, no (since you've explained some of the variance)? I'm probably discounting something like percentage of draft picks that are actually injury-prone (so maybe it's got 10% impact but only 30% are actually injury-prone so it explains less than that).
But yeah, it could be closer to 25% (except I don't like Randle at all).
By IWMTB19 Go To PostHmm? If we assume beforehand that a random top 7 pick has a 50% chance of busting and then give an extra 10% possibility of busting to a guy who misses his entire rookie season due to injury (giving higher probability due to the possibility of revealed injury-proneness), then that would work out fine...
But yeah, it could be closer to 25% (except I don't like Randle at all).
How could you not like Randle? He's a youngry Milsap
The main point is that I should model things more carefully than this and I'm going to come back to this in a couple of hours after I think this through.
Yisssssssss.
So, nick young, Ryan Kelly and Sacre gone. Its like Mitch is reading my thoughts
So, nick young, Ryan Kelly and Sacre gone. Its like Mitch is reading my thoughts
Free-agent forward Brandon Bass has agreed to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers, a league source told Yahoo Sports.http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--lakers-to-sign-brandon-bass--could-trade-nick-young-003359688.html?soc_src=mail&soc;_trk=ma
The terms of Bass' contract are still a work in progress because it is pending other Lakers deals, a source said. The Lakers have been aggressive over the weekend, agreeing to deals with Bass and Toronto Raptors free-agent guard Lou Williams and negotiating a trade for Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert.
As the Lakers work to clear cap space to sign free agents and absorb Hibbert's contract, Nick Young is a strong candidate to be unloaded, sources told Yahoo Sports. The Lakers are finalizing details to acquire Hibbert, and there remains a possibility Los Angeles could send a player to the Pacers in the agreement, sources said. The Lakers and Pacers had agreed on a future second-round pick as compensation for Hibbert and his $15.5 million 2015-16 salary getting absorbed into Los Angeles' salary-cap space.
The Lakers are exploring trades for Young, Ryan Kelly and Robert Sacre. Sacre and/or Kelly are possibilities to go to Pacers, sources said.
Young and Ryan Kelly and Sacre very much on block...Sacre and/or Kelly are possibilities to go to Pacers in the Hibbert deal.
Bass, 30, averaged 10.6 points and 4.9 rebounds while playing in all 82 games for the Boston Celtics last season. The 10-year NBA veteran played for the Celtics the past four seasons.
By Forever Go To PostPhil just did it.Breh, lrn2readpls
"unless a star player is injured"
Melo played 40 games and was injured for half of them.
By K@do Go To PostYisssssssss.
So, nick young, Ryan Kelly and Sacre gone. Its like Mitch is reading my thoughts
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--lakers-to-sign-brandon-bass--could-trade-nick-young-003359688.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
Lakers improve more with Kelly/Young/Sacre departure....30-35 wins right there.
Okay, so assume that every top pick entering the league has a 50% chance of busting (which is fair for Russell and Randle since they were neither particularly safe or risky), and then update priors based on what they have done in their NBA careers. Therefore,
Probability of Russell busting=Probability of a top pick busting given nothing=Probability of a top pick busting=.5
Probability of Randle busting=Probability of a top pick busting given a major injury in rookie year=alpha>.5
(alpha must be less than 1 obviously...)
I think this checks out actually... We haven't seen any revealed characteristics in injury-proneness for Russell (so we can't say if he is or isn't), but we have seen a negative revealed characteristics for injury-proneness for Randle. If Russell goes a full year without injury, then we would adjust his probability of busting below .5, yes.
Probability of Russell busting=Probability of a top pick busting given nothing=Probability of a top pick busting=.5
Probability of Randle busting=Probability of a top pick busting given a major injury in rookie year=alpha>.5
(alpha must be less than 1 obviously...)
I think this checks out actually... We haven't seen any revealed characteristics in injury-proneness for Russell (so we can't say if he is or isn't), but we have seen a negative revealed characteristics for injury-proneness for Randle. If Russell goes a full year without injury, then we would adjust his probability of busting below .5, yes.
By Red Blaster Go To Postnate duncan brought up the stat that dangelo shot better on contested threes than on open ones and that his average free throw % in college might be cause to temper expectations on his shooting
Fuck Nate Duncan
By Branduil Go To PostThe Mavs aren't trading Anderson for Lin.
Felton for Lin and LA will like it.
By Branduil Go To PostThe Mavs aren't trading Anderson for Lin.
Dallas doesn't have many options if they want Lin, they can't afford him without a S&T; Pacers or LA could also take on Felton but they will be compensated. They have no reason to help Dallas out here without an asset.
By Branduil Go To PostThe Mavs aren't trading Anderson for Lin.lol, Lakers have zero motivation to help y'all out.
By IWMTB19 Go To PostRussell shot over 40% on NBA threes in college, he'll be a great shooter.On the other hand, Trey Burke had better stats.
By K@do Go To PostDid you see Justise drawing fouls like Wade/Harden in Summer league?He also didn't know who Justise was until after the heat drafted him lol
yeah i did, but its summer league but that definitely answers my question .lol
trey burke is my biggest projection L--please dont search the olde nba gaf threads for my comments about him pre-draft
By K@do Go To Postlol, Lakers have zero motivation to help y'all out.
Eric PIncus is crunching the numbers and it's possible Indy take on Felton and/or Powell so Indy can ship out Hibbert and LA can sign Bass....or Young might be involved.....lots of moving parts
By Red Blaster Go To Posttrey burke is my biggest projection L--please dont search the olde nba gaf threads for my comments about him pre-draft
Trey Burke looked like he could pass and shoot in college.
Nope.
By IWMTB19 Go To PostTrey Burke looked like he could pass and shoot in college.
Nope.
cp3 level pure point rating
By Red Blaster Go To Postcp3 level pure point rating
I have seen him pass on roughly 20% of fast-breaks even though he can't shoot or make layups.
Dead serious too.
Dude put up YNB level numbers after he got over his initial garbageness in Detroit.
Dude put up YNB level numbers after he got over his initial garbageness in Detroit.
By blackace Go To Posthas it worked for the Hornets?It almost did. If only they would could of landed the #1 pick. You would had dudes lining up to play for Charlotte.
I expected Joseph to come to the Raptors, hometown brehs.
We still have other gaps to address though...
We still have other gaps to address though...
By D'Moris Russell Go To Post5yr/80mil for Reggie Jacksonwhy couldnt i be 6'+ and have a chance at this silly money :mjcry
Bargain? Wayyyyy too early to say that.
Can't wait for when we play the Pistons. YNB gonna be on fire about Reggie getting more than him.
Can't wait for when we play the Pistons. YNB gonna be on fire about Reggie getting more than him.