2015 NBA Mar |OT| 1-2-3...6 Weeks!

For those who care and like to stay in the know.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12541459/nba-front-office-rankings-2015

Two things can simultaneously be true. Mark Jackson could suck. And analytics could have provided no information / bad information on the most significant positive lineup change this season.

Analytics isn't some kind of swami or psychic that predicts the future.. You need data in the first place to make any kind of judgment, so I fail to see how it's analytics' fault for having "no data." It's the coach's job to provide the data to analyze. 

By RBK Go To Post

For those who care and like to stay in the know.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12541459/nba-front-office-rankings-2015" target="_blank">http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12541459/nba-front-office-rankings-2015

That list is full of lazy ass fuckery.

Barnes did (and will again if he starts shooting badly again) suck, but Jackson playing zero Green-Bogut bigs lineup this year when they've killed everyone is just funny. My preferred Warriors lineup was Curry-Klay-Iggy-Green-Bogut which is even more dominant than their starting lineup but played 13 total minutes last year. Coaches that don't experiment with their lineups at all are so boring.

But this is partially hindsight hating, yes.

By psychintellect Go To Post
Fixed

Well Gentry is a top 10 coach in this league.  I don't think anyone doubts that he can coach.

Kerr would be getting his ass ate by the New York media and looking at Karl Anthony Towns just the same if he was coaching the Knicks

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201410290SAC.html

The reason that this is so fascinating is that lineup was Kerr's GAME 1 starting lineup. He picked a lineup with no data to support him in terms of the lineup in full. He went AGAINST the analytics that said Iggy was a better option than Barnes. 

And he nailed it on the first try! He didn't stumble around 10 different starting lineups to gather data and he didn't just play the best lineup of the previous season. He made a non-data decision, and he was spot on right from the get go.

Gondo. nevermind man. This went over your head. 

Kerr wanted to bring Green off the bench for Barnes and Lee to start this year and that was a terrible call, but he actually fixed that terrible decision and now Lee never plays. Kerr said some weird things that I hated before the year, but then he stopped doing the things that weren't working and that's probably the best thing you can do as a coach.

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post

That list is full of lazy ass fuckery.

Compared to last year's list, for sure.

That list basically says nothing of worth, might just be me though. The FO one I mean.

By psychintellect Go To Post

You sure were singing Barnes' praises last season.....

Mark Jackson refused to play Barnes with the starters. Turns out, he's not the guy to carry a bad second unit, but he's really good when he's the third/fourth option on the floor. 

Coaching. How does it work? :p

By IWMTB19 Go To Post

Kerr wanted to bring Green off the bench for Barnes and Lee to start this year and that was a terrible call, but he actually fixed that terrible decision and now Lee never plays. Kerr said some weird things that I hated before the year, but then he stopped doing the things that weren't working and that's probably the best thing you can do as a coach.

Holy shit your revisionist history is bad. Their game 1 starting lineup was exactly the lineup you're raving about. 

Some people, you can show a clear cut example of analytics having no effect on a good decision, or a good decision running counter to analytics, and they'll cling on like it's the Bible in Arkansas. 

I still hate Barnes tbh and he's going to have a Marvin Williams like career arc of pretending not to suck every other year by having lucky shooting years.

But Kerr would probably bench Barnes if Barnes started to play terribly since Kerr seems good at adjusting to what's working which is a really nice trait that I didn't think he'd have.

By db Go To Post

That list basically says nothing of worth, might just be me though. The FO one I mean.

Well I posted it for obvious reasons, for those who like to discredit "you know who".

Anyone else worried the playoffs/finals are just going to be war of attrition style. I seriously hope some people get healthy in the next month but who am I kidding.

I wonder how much longer the Wiz have to suck before I start wishing our owner would die in sleep Brandy style

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post

I mean Grunfeld isn't average. You might be able to argue that Witt is--given that he's pretty good at one side of basketball and not the other, but Grunfeld isn't average. He's an atrocious drafter and has managed to not once develop a team that's been able to consistently get in the second round in 12 years now. By all metrics, he's terrible.

That is average though.  Most GMs are like that.  What's bizarre about Grunfeld is that he's still here.

I can't tell if I should bet on the Utes since they match up well with Duke and have pretty much the same stats as Duke, but are decently sized underdogs. From an objective standpoint, it seems clear... But it's super hard to have objectivity in a matchup involving your own team. Hasphats, would you take out a third mortgage on your car OR on your house in this situation?

It cuts both ways, right? Pop was playing the Splitter Duncan line-up heavy minutes last season, and by all measures it was a suboptimal line-up. But that line-up was incredibly useful when playing against Portland and OKC in the playoffs. 

I feel like some coaches should just get the benefit of the doubt.

By RBK Go To Post

Well I posted it for obvious reasons, for those who like to discredit "you know who".

Dude, ESPN panders to their audience. Their audience eats up analytics because it's easy as shit to digest. Like all easily presentable lists. There's an easy narrative with analytics because data's always been easier to understand than basketball strategy. There aren't that many Bill Belicheck's in the world, but everyone can look up QBR. 

No one at ESPN writes informative basketball articles. It's either just TMZ style stories about the personalities, or near useless breakdown of data from people who'd be equally qualified outlining the specs on the iphone 6 plus. 

If you're a true believer in analytics as an FO - then you max out Kris Middleton and stay away from Jimmy Butler. Because Middleton is the 9th ranked player in RPM this season. Thinking that Anthony Davis or Andrew Bogut is a good defender doesn't make you a believer in analytics - that's basic eye test stuff. 

When an FO is willing to take a big gamble on someone that the analytics says is a star but that the eye test says is a role player, then I'll give them credit. Otherwise, as I've said before. Most people have non 3 point specialist 4's. Defensive centers. And shoot tons of 3's when they have a bunch of 40%+ 3 point shooters. That's not analytics, that's just basic basketball and playing to your strengths. 

https://vine.co/v/OYYtHXzKDW6

By HasphatsAnts Go To Post

It cuts both ways, right? Pop was playing the Splitter Duncan line-up heavy minutes last season, and by all measures it was a suboptimal line-up. But that line-up was incredibly useful when playing against Portland and OKC in the playoffs. 

I feel like some coaches should just get the benefit of the doubt.

Or not even benefit of the doubt just acknowledgement of their ability to readjust which they've proven time and again.

David Lee was inactive for 24 of the first 25 games of the season. Probably made the decision to start Green slightly easier. 

To Kerr's credit, when it worked they stuck with it. But they were essentially forced into playing that lineup due to injury. 

Are you going to answer my question or not Vahagn?  That's all I care about hearing from you right about now.

I already said I'd max Middleton doe

By RBK Go To Post

Are you going to answer my question or not Vahagn?  That's all I care about hearing from you right about now.

I told you already, foo, I have no idea what question you're talking about. I must have missed your post. Ask me again. 

Data is a tool but it takes a damn good coach and GM to create a team with the necessary chemistry and mold them into winners.

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post

I already said I'd max Middleton doe

Middleton, Korver, Cody Zeller, Nurkic, Jrue Holiday. 

Would you field that starting lineup? And give at least 2 of them max contracts? 

All top 10 RPM in their positions. You can either have Korver or Tony Allen. Your pick. 

Actually, not playing Green-Bogut frontcourt last year at all isn't even an analytics thing. It's a being boring and dull and way too conservative thing. You should try different things to see what works in any given situation. And that doesn't have to be a data-driven statement.

Dude, no. The point is, whether or not analytics is responsible for Steve Kerr making the decision. There was no data on that lineup, so it clearly wasn't right? Now, if he started this season by picking the best lineup with a large sample size from last season, you can argue he was using analytics to guide his decision making. But by picking something with no data to support it, it's clear his decision wasn't driven by data. How is this hard to fathom? 

By RBK Go To Post
Would you care to enlighten on why Houston would only have a 20% of winning? I'm assuming you watch all 4 matchups and are not going off of stats.

You're twisting my words because I didn't use O/D ratings when talking about the Warriors. Wouldn't even make sense to considering they're superior in both categories.

Here you go.

By IWMTB19 Go To Post

I can't tell if I should bet on the Utes since they match up well with Duke and have pretty much the same stats as Duke, but are decently sized underdogs. From an objective standpoint, it seems clear... But it's super hard to have objectivity in a matchup involving your own team. Hasphats, would you take out a third mortgage on your car OR on your house in this situation?

I wouldn't. When they're ON, this Duke team can beat anybody, including Kentucky. But they don't have that killer instinct, and I'm scared they're not gonna take Utah seriously. They should've blown out SDSU by 40, and they were well on their way to doing that, but then they let them sneak back into the game. Utah is very very good, but Duke can put the 3 best players in the game on the court, so it'd definitely be an upset.

according to Kenpom, it's a tossup, but I wonder how much of Utah's great numbers is inflated by how good they are at home versus a neutral court match-up 

By IWMTB19 Go To Post Actually, not playing Green-Bogut frontcourt last year at all isn't even an analytics thing. It's a being boring and dull and way too conservative thing. You should try different things to see what works in any given situation. And that doesn't have to be a data-driven statement.

Agreed. Vahagn is the one who brought up analytics in this conversation anyways. 

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post Duke has it all

But we have it all as well as long as we're pretending we're playing at home.

Would the NBA have nixed the Noel trade for basketball reasons?

Probably

By RBK Go To Post

Here you go.

You were using O/D rankings when talking about Memphis. That's why I brought it up. i.e - if you're using O/D rankings when discussing a matchup with Memphis I would assume you're interested in them when discussing GS. 

I think they have only a 20% chance because I think your offensive system is a gimmick. Whereas the Warriors run all sorts of intricate off ball actions inspired by the Triangle and Pop's stuff, you guys just play 4 out 1 in and rely on Harden to do absolutely everything. And basketball, just like football, is a chess match. It's about adjustments to a defense and running the right sets defensively and offensively. And your stuff is vanilla as all hell with no layers underneath. 

In other words, you're going to have to rely on Harden being insanely hot from 3 and/or shattering FTA records in order to have a chance. 

By Dark PhaZe Go To Post Iverson got to a finals with that though. Its not the worst strategy ever and Houston has some fantastic defensive pieces around him. Also random x factor of Dwight having an explosive game here and there.

2015 West >>>>>>>>>> 2001 East. Also, this is specifically related to GS, who have two 3 point shooters better than Harden who can hit contested 3's at a better clip. He's going to have to shatter certain offensive records to beat them I think. 

I wouldn't favor the Rockets in that series, but I could see a scenario a couple of times out of ten where Klay becomes exhausted from guarding Harden on one end and being defended by Ariza on the other and is neutralized. Dwight somehow becoming a gawd and Bev irritatting the shit out Curry every once in a while.

Dat bench though..

Is the Rockets offense really any different from the one Orlando used the year they made it to the Finals?  Granted that team might have better shooters on the roster, but Rashard Lewis isn't Harden.

We have match-up advantages at the 2/3/5 positions and you could argue that TJones/Green is a wash.  The end results of the games don't show the overall game, but we can match GS as far as defensively.  The bench overall will probably be the deciding factor, where Iggy, Lee, and Speights will demolish Houston's.

We would have to play out of this world to win, no doubt.

Dwight says he's ready to give the keys to Harden is a good sign. If the dude would go out and just be Deandre or Tyson we could be so good instead of slows possessions down by forcing it to him.

By db Go To Post

This gif sums up how I'm feeling about our season lately.

http://i.minus.com/idnuTZ6wuwNHR.gif">

I can't post a gif that's representative of my feelings for this Lakers season.

By Colonel Nasty Go To Post

Dwight says he's ready to give the keys to Harden is a good sign. If the dude would go out and just be Deandre or Tyson we could be so good instead of slows possessions down by forcing it to him.

Dwight still thinks he has the keys to give? 

By Vahagn Go To Post

Dwight still thinks he has the keys to give? 

for real, they were Harden's keys before he got there and he sure as hell didn't usurp him upon his arrival. Delusional clown, play your class role asshole.

Just looking ahead, the Clippers are gonna get that #3 seed, their schedule is ridiculously easy coming up. The matchups will be:

Golden State vs. OKC (1v8)

Memphis vs. Dallas (2v7)

LAC vs. SAS/HOU (3v6)

SAS/HOU vs. POR (5v4. Portland gets the #4 seed due to winning the division, but the #5 will have HCA)

If Houston can stay ahead of the Spurs, the Portland/Houston rematch will happen. Buy salt stocks now.

Maybe he just knows the severity of the knee injury where he would have no choice, I'll remain optimistic though.

He'll still get touches in the post, but PnR Harden/Howard offense might finally be here.

EDIT: Howard hate is heavy as always.

By Vahagn Go To Post

Dwight still thinks he has the keys to give? 

Seriously